Kenya braces for weak short rains as climate scientists warn of La Niña-driven drought risk

Nairobi, Aug 27, 2025 — Kenya’s weather authorities have cautioned that the October–December short rains may be among the driest in years, raising fresh alarms over food security and water stress. At the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) in Nairobi, scientists from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) projected a 55% probability that central and eastern counties will receive below-normal rainfall.

What the forecast says

• Weak La Niña and a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to suppress rainfall across much of the Horn of Africa.

• Central and eastern Kenya: Higher risk of delayed rains and above-average temperatures, intensifying drought impacts.

• Western Kenya: Likely to see better-than-average rainfall and an earlier onset of the season.

• National significance: Short rains typically provide up to 70% of annual precipitation for Kenyan farmers.

Government response

• Deborah Barasa, CS for Environment: Urged both national and county governments to strengthen climate resilience, stressing that early-warning information must reach farmers and pastoralists.

  “Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information and a united regional approach.”

• Edward Muriuki, Acting Director, Kenya Meteorological Department: Pledged continuous updates to help communities adjust planting schedules, conserve water, and prepare for heatwaves.

Regional dimension

• Mohamed Ware, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary: Warned that the Horn of Africa remains on the front line of the climate crisis and pressed governments to convert forecasts into practical action for crops, livestock, and water systems.

• IGAD officials urged cross-border cooperation in managing food reserves, migration pressures, and drought response.

Why this matters

• Food security: Farmers in drought-prone counties may struggle with reduced harvests, worsening already high maize and bean deficits.

• Pastoralist livelihoods: Scarce pasture and water raise risks of livestock losses and conflict over resources.

• Urban impact: Water rationing and electricity shortfalls (from reduced hydropower inflows) could affect Nairobi and other cities.

What Kenyans should do

• Conserve water and invest in rain-harvesting where possible.

• Adjust planting to drought-resistant or early-maturing crops.

• Monitor updates from the Meteorological Department and county agriculture offices.

• Engage in community preparedness — from fodder storage to livestock vaccination.