The battle for the soul of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has turned openly fratricidal. In a blunt assessment that shatters any pretense of party unity, ODM Director of Elections Junet Mohamed has told Embakasi East MP Babu Owino to bury his dreams of becoming Party Leader, advising him to focus on unseating Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja instead.

Speaking on national television, the Suna East MP did not mince words. He characterized Owino’s aggressive push for a National Delegates Convention (NDC) to install him as leader as a futile exercise, stating that the "circumstances within the outfit" simply do not favor the youthful firebrand. It was a thinly veiled message: the party owners have not anointed you.

The Succession Matrix

The rejection highlights the deep generational and ideological fissures emerging in the post-Raila era. Babu Owino has positioned himself as the voice of the "young Turks" and the rightful heir to the Luo Nyanza political base, daring critics to "ask anyone on the ground." His strategy relies on populism and direct engagement with the masses, bypassing the traditional party structures that Junet represents.

• The Consolation Prize: Junet’s "endorsement" of Babu for the Nairobi Governorship in 2027 is a classic political diversion. It seeks to channel Babu’s energy away from the party cockpit and into a high-stakes battle for the capital, where his mobilization skills are an asset rather than a threat to the establishment.
• Internal Resistance: "You cannot force leadership," Junet noted. "The party has its owners and its traditions."

A Party at War with Itself

Babu Owino, however, shows no signs of backing down. He has accused current interim leaders of being "caretakers" squandering the legacy of the late Raila Odinga. "I will not be boarded," he declared recently, signaling a protracted guerrilla war for control of the orange party.

As the 2027 general election looms, ODM finds itself in a precarious position. It must manage the ambition of its most energetic youth leader while maintaining the delicate coalition of elders that holds its traditional base together. If Junet’s dismissal is the official position, the stage is set for a bruising nomination battle that could split the party right down the middle.