A political firestorm has erupted over the Nyamira County by-election results, with Presidential advisor Dennis Itumbi claiming the widely reported opposition victory was, in fact, a cleverly disguised win for the government. The assertion challenges the narrative that allies of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i secured a decisive political foothold in his home turf.

The November 27 polls saw candidates from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—parties aligned with the United Opposition—clinch all three contested Member of County Assembly seats. The results were immediately hailed as a major political statement by Dr. Matiang'i, solidifying his influence in the Gusii region against the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition's formidable campaign machinery.

But in a dramatic twist, Mr. Itumbi took to social media to reframe the outcome. He alleged that the victorious UPA candidates were secretly aligned with the government's 'broad-based' political formation. "The two newly elected MCAs in Nyamira were, in fact, broad-based candidates," Itumbi posted, suggesting a sophisticated political strategy was at play. He further claimed UPA party leader, Governor Amos Nyaribo, was fully aligned with the government and that Dr. Matiang'i had blessed the arrangement from the start.

A War of Narratives

Itumbi's claims directly contradict the position of opposition stakeholders. Jubilee Party's Deputy Organising Secretary, Pauline Njoroge, had earlier praised the outcome as a clear opposition triumph. “Fred Matiang'i, the man who works with precision and effectiveness that speaks loudly, delivered three seats in Nyamira, proving why he is one of the most dependable anchors in our political landscape,” she stated. This view portrays the Nyamira sweep as a crucial morale booster for an opposition that faced losses in other by-elections across the country.

The Nyamira contests were fiercely fought and closely watched, seen as a litmus test for both President William Ruto's UDA party and Dr. Matiang'i's presidential ambitions. The key results from the November 27 polls were:

• Nyansiongo Ward: Jackson Mogusu Mochumbe (PDP) won with 2,759 votes.
• Nyamaiya Ward: Christopher Moturi Osiemo (UPA) secured victory with 4,790 votes.
• Ekerenyo Ward: Jeremiah Njenga Ongaro (UPA) won with 3,507 votes.

Itumbi mocked the opposition as “United in Confusion” for, in his view, failing to recognise the supposed Trojan horse strategy. However, leaders within the opposition have remained steadfast, framing the wins as a testament to their grassroots strength and a rejection of the government's intensive campaigning in the region. An ODM branch chairman in Nyamira described a subsequent defection of the MCAs as “a betrayal of the people who voted believing they were electing UPA representatives.”

While details of the alleged secret pact remain unsubstantiated by opposition leaders, the conflicting claims have muddied the political waters. For the average Nyamira resident, the immediate question is whether the newly elected leaders will prioritize local development or the high-stakes political chess match now playing out between Nairobi and the counties. As the dust settles, the battle for the political soul of Gusiiland appears to have only just begun.