Kenyans can now track the final outcomes of the closely watched November 27th by-elections in real-time through the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission's (IEBC) official online portal. The digital platform offers a transparent, polling station-by-polling station view of the results, a measure intended to build public trust after a contentious day of voting.

These mini-polls, however, have become more than just a logistical exercise in democracy. They represent the first major electoral test for the newly constituted IEBC and are widely seen by analysts as a crucial political barometer for the 2027 General Election. The stakes were palpable, not just for the 181 candidates, but for national political titans using the local races as a proxy battleground for future influence.

A Costly Affair Amidst Hardship

The by-elections across one senatorial seat, six constituencies, and 17 county assembly wards came with a hefty price tag of approximately KES 1.046 billion ($7.5 million). This expenditure has reignited a fierce debate on the cost of politics in Kenya. For the average citizen grappling with the high cost of living, that figure is staggering. It raises the fundamental question: how does spending over a billion shillings on interim polls put food on the table? The cost per registered voter in the 2022 General Election was about KES 2,200, a figure that already dwarfs international benchmarks.

Violence and Intimidation Taint the Vote

The promise of a smooth process was shattered by outbreaks of violence in several key areas. In Kasipul, Homa Bay County, the contest was particularly grim. Clashes in the weeks leading up to the vote resulted in the tragic deaths of two young men. On polling day, Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma, serving as an agent for the ODM party, was attacked and sustained head injuries. The IEBC had earlier fined the two main candidates KES 1 million each for failing to control their supporters.

Similar scenes unfolded in Malava, Kakamega County, where a vehicle associated with DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa was torched. The IEBC Chairperson, Erastus Ethekon, condemned the incidents, stating, “Violence and intimidation have no place in our democracy. We are working closely with security agencies to ensure swift action against any perpetrators.”

Kenyans Stay Home in Droves

Despite the high political stakes, a significant number of voters chose to stay away. Reports from various constituencies indicated markedly low turnout.

• In the Ugunja constituency by-election, voter turnout was a mere 24.98%.
• Mandera's Banisa constituency saw only 30% of registered voters cast their ballots by noon, with the ongoing drought forcing many pastoralist families to migrate.
• Baringo County also reported a dismally low turnout for its senatorial race.

This widespread apathy suggests a growing disconnect between the political class and the everyday concerns of ordinary Kenyans, for whom the immediate priority is economic survival, not political contests.

Emerging Winners and Political Shockwaves

As the IEBC's portal continues to update with verified forms, a picture of the political landscape is emerging. In the high-stakes Mbeere North race, UDA's Leo Wamuthende clinched the seat with 15,802 votes, narrowly defeating Newton Kariuki, who garnered 15,308 votes. This election was framed as a direct contest between Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and his predecessor Rigathi Gachagua.

In Kasipul, ODM's Boyd Were was declared the winner with a commanding 16,819 votes, reinforcing the party's dominance in the region. Meanwhile, ODM also retained the Ugunja seat, with Moses Omondi Okoth securing victory with 9,437 votes.

While the digital portal provides the numbers, the story of these by-elections is written in the violent clashes, the empty polling stations, and the billion-shilling bill. As the final results are confirmed, analysts will be closely watching what these outcomes signal for the political realignments heading towards 2027. For many Kenyans, however, the more pressing question remains what, if anything, will change for them. The IEBC has assured the public that any aggrieved parties should seek resolution through the courts, emphasizing a commitment to the rule of law to conclude the electoral process.