Kenya is confronting a stark resurgence in the fight against HIV, as new official data reveals a 19% increase in infections nationwide over the past year. The capital, Nairobi, has emerged as the new epicentre of the epidemic, recording the highest number of fresh cases and signalling a critical shift in the country's decades-long battle against the virus.

This spike, detailed in a report by the National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC), pushes the total of new infections to 19,991, a significant jump from 16,752 in the previous year. For ordinary Kenyans, this is more than a statistic; it represents a renewed threat to the health of the nation's workforce and the stability of its families, particularly as the country grapples with economic pressures. The data was released just ahead of World AIDS Day on December 1, 2025.

Youth Bear the Brunt of New Cases

The report underscores a particularly worrying trend: young people are the most affected. Kenyans aged 15 to 34 account for a staggering 54% of all new infections. Health officials attribute this surge to a combination of factors, including low testing rates, inconsistent condom use, and inadequate access to prevention services, especially within urban informal settlements. Nairobi County alone registered 3,045 new cases, surpassing traditional hotspots in the Lake Victoria region.

The concentration of the epidemic is stark, with ten counties contributing to 60% of all new infections. These include:

• Nairobi (3,045)
• Migori (1,572)
• Kisumu (1,341)
• Homa Bay (1,180)
• Busia (868)
• Siaya (835)
• Kakamega (819)
• Nakuru (817)
• Mombasa (679)
• Bungoma (660)

Women and girls continue to be disproportionately impacted. The national HIV prevalence stands at 4.0% for females, double the 2.0% rate for males. This vulnerability is compounded by what the NSDCC calls a "Triple Threat": the interconnected issues of HIV infection, adolescent pregnancies, and sexual and gender-based violence.

A Rise in Deaths and a Call to Action

The increase in infections is mirrored by a rise in AIDS-related deaths, which climbed to 21,007 in 2024 from 18,473 the previous year. Medical Services Principal Secretary Ouma Oluga emphasized the gravity of the figures. "AIDS-related deaths...remind us of the need for renewed focus on early diagnosis, treatment adherence, and retention in care," Oluga noted. This setback comes despite Kenya's significant long-term progress, which saw a 52% decrease in new infections over the last decade.

In response to the alarming statistics, the Ministry of Health and the NSDCC organised events to raise awareness, including a national half-marathon in Nairobi. Officials are urging for sustained campaigns and better access to testing and prevention tools like Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to reverse the trend.

While the country has over 1.3 million people on life-saving antiretroviral treatment, experts warn that complacency could erode hard-won gains. Nelson Otwoma of the National Empowerment Network of People Living with HIV/Aids in Kenya (Nephak) suggested that a recent condom shortage and a dip in prevention campaigns may have contributed to the surge.

As Kenya stands at this critical juncture, the path forward demands urgent and targeted action. "The time to act is now," Dr. Deborah Mulongo Barasa, the Health Cabinet Secretary, stated earlier in the year, stressing the need for a self-sustaining health system. The latest figures are a clear indication that this call for resilience and renewed focus has never been more critical for the nation's future.