Artillery fire thundered across the Thai-Cambodian border early Saturday, shattering a premature victory lap by US President Donald Trump, who had announced a ceasefire just hours earlier.

The disconnect between Washington’s rhetoric and the bloody reality on the ground underscores the volatility of the region. For observers in Nairobi, this rapid unraveling serves as a stark reminder of how quickly diplomatic narratives can crumble when deep-seated territorial disputes are treated as simple transaction deals.

Diplomacy Disconnected from Reality

Fighting persisted into the weekend despite President Trump taking to social media on Friday night to declare a breakthrough. He claimed the two nations had agreed to "cease shooting effective this evening" following phone calls with leadership in both Bangkok and Phnom Penh.

However, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul swiftly punctured that narrative. In a statement that highlights the complexity of the conflict, Anutin asserted that a ceasefire remains conditional on tangible actions, not just verbal promises.

"Thailand will continue to perform military actions until we feel no more harm and threats to our land and people," Anutin stated on social media. "I want to make it clear. Our actions this morning already spoke."

The Thai premier emphasized that he had explicitly informed the US President that peace would only return once Cambodia withdrew all forces and removed landmines from the contested zone.

A Humanitarian Crisis of Scale

While the diplomatic cables fly back and forth, the human cost on the ground is mounting. Shelling continued overnight as Thai forces maneuvered to capture strategic vantage points along the border.

• Casualties: At least 21 people have been confirmed dead since the renewed fighting erupted on Monday.
• Displacement: A staggering 700,000 people have been evacuated on both sides. To put this in perspective for our readers, that is roughly equivalent to the entire population of Nakuru City being forced from their homes in under a week.
• History: The conflict reignites tensions over an agreement signed in October, which Trump had previously touted as a success.

Earlier in the week, President Trump boasted that he could halt the conflict merely by "picking up the phone." Yet, unlike the de-escalation seen in July—which involved the threat of heavy tariffs—there was no mention of economic leverage this time around.

As Anutin bluntly told the US President regarding the Cambodian withdrawal: "They must show us first." Until those movements are verified on the ground, the border remains a kill zone, regardless of what is announced in Washington.