GLOBAL – Canada’s top intelligence official has publicly declared that both Russia and China are intensifying espionage efforts in the nation's Arctic region, targeting government and private sector assets in a strategic play for resources and influence. The announcement, made on Thursday, 13 November 2025, by Dan Rogers, Director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), highlights the emergence of the high north as a new flashpoint in global geopolitics.

In a detailed annual address on threats facing Canada, Director Rogers stated that CSIS has observed significant cyber and human intelligence gathering operations by Moscow and Beijing. “Non-Arctic states, including the People's Republic of China, seek to gain a strategic and economic foothold in the region,” Rogers warned, adding that Russia, “an Arctic state with a significant military presence in the region, remains unpredictable and aggressive.” The operations are aimed at acquiring sensitive information and technology related to the area's vast critical mineral deposits and increasingly navigable shipping routes. Rogers also revealed that CSIS had successfully thwarted Russian attempts to illegally acquire Canadian technology for use in its war against Ukraine by alerting targeted Canadian companies.

A Region Transformed by Climate Change

The growing interest from foreign powers is a direct consequence of climate change. Melting sea ice is making the Arctic more accessible, opening up previously frozen waterways and exposing immense natural resource wealth. In response, Canada is bolstering its northern defences and infrastructure. The 2025 federal budget, presented on Tuesday, 4 November 2025, allocated C$1 billion for a new Arctic Infrastructure Fund to develop dual-use civilian and military facilities, including airports, seaports, and all-season roads. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister, Anita Anand, has also stressed the need for the NATO military alliance to increase its focus on the region. “NATO's gaze also has to shift westward and north because of the changing geopolitical landscape,” Anand stated during a visit to Helsinki in August 2025.

Russia and China's Strategic Ambitions

The concerns raised by Canada are rooted in the explicit long-term strategies of both Russia and China. Russia, which controls over half the Arctic coastline, has been systematically reopening Soviet-era military bases and expanding its Northern Fleet, the largest of its naval forces. Moscow's policy aims to secure its economic future through resource exploitation and control of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a shipping lane it is developing as a major global corridor.

China, meanwhile, has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and is pursuing its “Polar Silk Road” initiative, which frames the Arctic shipping lanes as an extension of its global Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing has invested heavily in Russian energy projects in the region, such as the Yamal LNG plant, and seeks to diversify its trade routes to reduce reliance on traditional maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While geographically distant, the geopolitical contest in the Arctic carries significant long-term implications for Kenya and the wider East African region. The most direct potential impact concerns global trade. The Northern Sea Route, running along Russia's coast, is approximately 40% shorter for shipping between major ports in Asia and Europe compared to the current route through the Suez Canal. As the ice recedes, analysts project that the NSR could divert a substantial portion of global trade, potentially reducing traffic and revenue for the Suez Canal, a critical artery for East Africa's commerce with Europe and Asia.

Furthermore, the scramble for the Arctic's “troves of critical minerals” mirrors the intense global competition for similar resources across Africa. The same global powers—China, Russia, and Western nations—competing for influence and access in the Arctic are also key players in Africa's mining sector. The dynamics of this resource competition, whether in the high north or in Africa, will shape global supply chains, commodity prices, and the geopolitical landscape for resource-rich nations for decades to come.

Ultimately, the escalating tensions in the Arctic are a stark reminder of how climate change is redrawing the world's strategic map. For Kenya, a nation on the front lines of the climate crisis, the opening of this new northern frontier is not an isolated event but a development intertwined with the future of global trade, resource politics, and international security.