Mombasa Governor and ODM Deputy Party Leader Abdulswamad Nassir has shattered the fragile truce within the Orange Democratic Movement, demanding the party formalize its relationship with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) or risk political oblivion in 2027.

Speaking in Likoni on Monday, Nassir argued that the current "Broad-Based Government" arrangement—where ODM officials sit in the Cabinet while the party claims to be in opposition—is unsustainable. His ultimatum comes at a pivotal moment for the party, which is still navigating the leadership vacuum left by the death of its patriarch, Raila Odinga, in October.

“We cannot continue dating in the dark while expecting a marriage in 2027,” Nassir told a gathering of party delegates. “In 2027, ODM will either form the next government or be part of the next government. We must be bold enough to define that relationship now, in daylight, rather than waiting for backroom deals when it is too late.”

The 'Dating in the Dark' Dilemma

Nassir’s comments expose the deepening ideological rift within Kenya’s oldest political party. Since the formation of the Broad-Based Government in early 2025, ODM has existed in a gray zone: enjoying the trappings of power through Cabinet appointments while its parliamentary wing, led by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, continues to critique the state.

For the average Kenyan, this duality has been confusing. While ODM ministers implement government policy on housing and taxation, ODM MPs often rail against the rising cost of living. Nassir argues this ambiguity hurts the party’s credibility.

• The Proposal: A formal pre-election coalition agreement deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties.
• The Goal: Secure a guaranteed share of government (President or Deputy President slot) ahead of the 2027 polls.
• The Risk: Alienating the party’s radical base that views UDA as the antagonist.

“We never signed a coalition agreement before, only a cooperation pact on specific issues,” Nassir noted, referring to the 10-point agenda signed in March 2025. “But cooperation is temporary. A coalition is a strategy for survival.”

The Sifuna Factor: Resistance from Within

The push for a merger faces stiff resistance from the party’s "activist wing," spearheaded by Nairobi Senator and Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna. Sifuna has repeatedly warned that folding ODM into UDA would leave Kenya without a credible opposition, effectively turning the country into a single-party state.

“There are those who believe we must remain in opposition to check the government,” Nassir acknowledged, without naming Sifuna directly. “But there is no political party formed to be in the opposition forever. We have the experience, the numbers, and the legacy. Why should we shy away from the table where decisions are made?”

Analysts suggest Nassir’s boldness is bolstered by the support of Interim Party Leader Oburu Oginga, who has recently signaled openness to "strategic alliances" to preserve his late brother’s legacy of national unity.

Life After Baba: Navigating the Vacuum

The timing of Nassir’s call is critical. With the party still mourning Raila Odinga, the glue that held ODM’s diverse regional interests together is testing its bonds. The Nyanza and Coast voting blocs—historically ODM’s bedrock—are being courted aggressively by UDA.

By championing a formal coalition, Nassir is positioning himself not just as a regional kingpin, but as a national pragmatist willing to secure the Coast’s interests from within the government. For the mwananchi in Mombasa, this could mean better funding for the port and infrastructure; for the diehard supporter in Kondele, it might feel like a betrayal of the "liberation" struggle.

As the 2027 clock ticks, the Orange party faces its existential question: Can it survive as a junior partner to President Ruto, or will the attempt to merge lead to a splintering of the opposition?