A Global Warning with Local Consequences

An international consortium of 43 leading experts has issued a stark warning on Wednesday, 19 November 2025, declaring that the rising global consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) poses a "seismic threat to global health." In a comprehensive three-part series published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet, researchers presented evidence linking these industrial food formulations to a higher risk of obesity, type 2 diabetes, heart disease, depression, and premature death. This global alert carries urgent implications for Kenya, which is grappling with a rapidly escalating burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Defining the Threat: What Are Ultra-Processed Foods?

Ultra-processed foods are not merely modified foods but industrial formulations typically containing five or more ingredients, including substances not commonly used in home cooking like preservatives, emulsifiers, sweeteners, and artificial colours and flavours. Common examples flooding the Kenyan market include packaged snacks, sugary drinks, instant noodles, mass-produced breads, and ready-to-eat meals. The Lancet series reviewed 104 long-term studies and found that 92 of them reported significant associations between high UPF consumption and at least one chronic disease. In nations like the UK and the US, these products already constitute over half of the average diet.

The Kenyan Health Crisis

While comprehensive national data on UPF consumption in Kenya is still emerging, a 2023 report noted that consumption grew by 23% between 2017 and 2023. This trend coincides with an alarming rise in NCDs. According to Kenya's Ministry of Health, NCDs accounted for 39% of all deaths in the country in 2020, a significant increase from 27% in 2014. More than half of these deaths occur in Kenyans under the age of 40.

Recent statistics paint a grim picture:

• Diabetes: The prevalence of diabetes in Kenya is approximately 4.5%, with the International Diabetes Federation projecting that the number of cases will rise from 2.3 million in 2021 to 3.5 million by 2045.
• Hypertension: A 2015 STEPS survey found the prevalence of elevated blood pressure was 23.8%. More recent studies confirm hypertension is a leading NCD, affecting millions.
• Obesity: A national survey in 2015 found that 28% of Kenyans were overweight or obese, a figure that rises to 38% in urban centres like Nairobi.

Health experts note that the increasing availability and aggressive marketing of affordable, convenient, and hyper-palatable UPFs in urban and peri-urban areas are significant drivers of this health crisis. A study in Kenyan urban slums found that UPFs contributed to over 25% of adolescents' daily energy intake and were linked to poor diet quality.

Calls for Regulation and Policy Action

The Lancet researchers have called for urgent government action, including the implementation of warning labels on packaging, restrictions on marketing (especially to children), and taxes on UPFs to fund subsidies for fresh, nutritious foods. They argue that the tactics used by some large food corporations to market their products and create scientific doubt are reminiscent of those employed by the tobacco industry.

In response to the growing NCD burden, the Kenyan government has taken several steps. The Ministry of Health launched the National Strategic Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs 2021/22-2025/26, which aims to strengthen the health system's response and promote healthy lifestyles. Furthermore, Kenya has been developing regulations for mandatory front-of-package labelling (FOPL) to help consumers identify unhealthy products high in sugar, salt, and fat. These policy discussions are critical as Kenya navigates the health impacts of a rapidly changing food environment.

The Path Forward

The evidence presented by international researchers provides a critical framework for understanding the link between dietary shifts and public health outcomes. For Kenya, the proliferation of ultra-processed foods is not just a matter of consumer choice but a significant public health challenge that intersects with economic development, urbanisation, and healthcare policy. Addressing this threat will require a multi-sectoral approach, combining robust government regulation with public awareness campaigns to safeguard the long-term health of the nation. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED into the specific market share and consumption volumes of various UPF categories within the East Africa region to tailor policy interventions effectively.