As the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) navigates the treacherous waters of a post-Raila era, its Secretary General Edwin Sifuna stands accused of lighting matches in the powder keg.

The death of a founding patriarch is always a moment of extreme fragility for a political movement. Yet, instead of shepherding the flock, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna seems intent on scattering it. The central question rattling the corridors of Orange House is simple: Can you be the party's chief administrator and its most vocal internal arsonist simultaneously?

The Conflict of Interest

Sifuna’s dual role has created an untenable institutional strain. As Secretary General, his mandate is to unify, to discipline, and to build consensus. As a senator with grand ambitions, his instinct is to populist agitation. These two imperatives are currently at war, and the party structure is the collateral damage.

• The Leadership Vacuum: With Raila Odinga gone, the center of gravity is shifting. Sifuna’s aggressive posturing is seen by party elders not as strength, but as a dangerous gamble for personal supremacy at the expense of party cohesion.
• The Grassroots Confusion: The rank and file are receiving mixed signals. Is the party consolidating or imploding? Sifuna’s public spats with fellow party luminaries are eroding the disciplined front that ODM was once famous for.

A House Divided

Fredrick Okango’s analysis cuts to the bone: disciplined leadership requires restraint. Sifuna represents a new guard—brash, articulate, but perhaps lacking the strategic patience that kept ODM alive for two decades. If he continues to play the arsonist, he may soon find himself ruling over nothing but ashes.

The transition was always going to be painful, but it didn't have to be suicidal. ODM must decide, and quickly, whether it wants a Secretary General or a Celebrity Rebel. It cannot have both.