The truce is over. Less than three months after the fierce battles of November, Kenya is bracing for another political showdown. On February 26, voters in five wards and two constituencies will head to the polls in a series of by-elections that pundits are calling a "referendum on the Broad-Based Government."

The contest pits President William Ruto’s ruling UDA—now bolstered by its ODM allies in government—against a recalcitrant "United Opposition" faction led by Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa. The stakes are far higher than the seats on offer; this is a test of narratives ahead of 2027.

The Battlegrounds

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has gazetted the dates for seats left vacant by deaths and court nullifications. The key battlegrounds include a constituency in the swing region of Western Kenya and a ward in the heart of Nairobi.

• The Government Strategy: President Ruto wants to prove that his "Broad-Based" experiment works. The UDA and pro-government ODM wings plan to field joint candidates, eliminating "friendly fire" to consolidate the vote. "We are one team now," Ruto declared at a church service. "We will sweep these seats to show that Kenyans want development, not noise."
• The Opposition's Last Stand: For Kalonzo and Wamalwa, this is a fight for relevance. They have framed the by-elections as a protest vote against the high cost of living and the "capture" of Parliament. "We will defeat the traitors and the oppressors together," Kalonzo vowed, promising to field single consensus candidates.

A Bellwether for 2027

If the government wins, it validates Ruto’s strategy of swallowing the opposition. If the United Opposition wins, it signals that the ground is shifting away from the handshake deal. With campaign drums already beating, February 26 will determine whether the "Broad-Based" marriage is a political masterstroke or a liability.