A standoff is brewing in the North Rift. The National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) has opened its silos with a buying price of KES 4,000 per 90kg bag of maize, a figure that has been met with immediate rejection by farmer unions who term it a "mockery" of their labor.

The announcement, intended to stabilize market prices ahead of a projected bumper harvest of 70 million bags, has instead ignited a price war. Farmers argue that the cost of production—driven by fuel and labor—remains high despite fertilizer subsidies. "KES 4,000 is barely breaking even," said Kipkorir Menjo, Director of the Kenya Farmers Association (KFA). "We expected at least KES 5,500 to sustain farming as a business."

The Miller Factor

Complicating the NCPB’s plan is the private sector. Millers in Eldoret and Kitale are reportedly offering up to KES 4,300 for cash-on-delivery, undercutting the state’s offer. Farmers are flocking to these private buyers to avoid the bureaucracy and payment delays often associated with the NCPB. "Why queue at the depot for a government promise when a miller has cash at the gate?" posed a farmer in Moiben.

• Strategic Reserves: The government aims to purchase at least 2 million bags for the National Strategic Food Reserve to cushion the country against future shortages. However, without a competitive price, the silos may remain empty.
• Payment Promise: The NCPB has promised "instant payment" via M-Pesa for deliveries, trying to sweeten the deal. They are also enforcing strict quality controls, rejecting maize with high moisture content, which further frustrates farmers lacking drying facilities.

A Market Correction?

The government insists that KES 4,000 is a fair market correction that balances farmer profit with consumer affordability. "If we pay farmers KES 6,000, the price of unga will hit KES 250," an agriculture ministry official explained. "We must protect the consumer too."

As trucks line up at private mills while government depots see a trickle, the market is voting with its wheels. Unless the NCPB adjusts its offer, the state risks losing control of the country's strategic grain reserve to the private sector.