Project Restart Amid Fragile Security

American energy corporation ExxonMobil announced on Thursday, November 20, 2025, that it has lifted the 'force majeure' on its Rovuma Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project in northern Mozambique, paving the way for work to resume after a multi-year suspension. The legal declaration, which frees a company from contractual obligations due to extraordinary circumstances, was initially implemented in 2021 following escalating attacks by Islamic State-affiliated militants in the Cabo Delgado province.

The decision follows a similar move in October 2025 by French energy giant TotalEnergies for its separate, but nearby, $20 billion Mozambique LNG project. Both mega-projects were halted after a major insurgent attack on the town of Palma in March 2021, which killed dozens and displaced thousands, highlighting the severe security crisis that has plagued the region since 2017.

An improved, yet volatile, security environment has been cited as the primary reason for the resumption. The deployment of troops from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in mid-2021 helped to push back the insurgents and regain control of key areas. However, SADC forces completed their withdrawal in July 2024, and reports from late 2025 indicate a resurgence in violence, with a record number of incidents against civilians and significant new displacements, raising concerns about the long-term stability of the region.

Economic Stakes for Mozambique and Global Energy

The Rovuma LNG project, located in Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin, is a cornerstone of Mozambique's ambition to become a major global energy exporter. The project is operated by Mozambique Rovuma Venture (MRV), a joint venture in which ExxonMobil, Italy's Eni, and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) hold a combined 70% stake. The remaining partners are Portugal's Galp, South Korea's KOGAS, and Mozambique's state-owned Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), each with 10%.

During the suspension, ExxonMobil refined the project's design, increasing its potential annual production capacity from 15.2 million to 18 million metric tons. A final investment decision is now anticipated in 2026, with production forecast to begin in the early 2030s. The Mozambican government projects that revenues from its vast gas reserves could peak at over $6 billion annually in the 2040s and has established a sovereign wealth fund to manage the expected income.

The resumption is a critical step for ExxonMobil, which aims to nearly double its LNG portfolio by 2030. However, the project faces economic headwinds, including the risk of a saturated global LNG market by the time it comes online and concerns that the infrastructure could become a stranded asset as the world transitions to cleaner energy.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While the Rovuma LNG project's restart is a significant development for the southern African nation, its direct, immediate impact on Kenya is limited. Historically, discussions have taken place regarding the supply of Mozambican gas to Kenya, particularly for a planned 700 MW power plant near Mombasa, but these have not yet materialized into firm agreements. The primary mode of transport would be via LNG shipments, as there are no cross-border pipelines.

In the long term, a stable, high-volume supply of LNG from a fellow African nation could offer a strategic energy alternative for Kenya and the wider East African region. Mozambique is increasingly recognized as a potential continental energy champion, alongside Kenya, due to its significant natural gas and hydropower resources. The project's success could bolster regional energy security and potentially influence future energy infrastructure investments across the Indian Ocean coastline.

However, the primary focus for Mozambique's LNG will be major global markets in Asia and Europe. For Kenya, the more immediate significance lies in the geopolitical and security dimensions. The insurgency in Cabo Delgado, driven by a group affiliated with the Islamic State, is part of a broader trend of extremist violence in the region. The success or failure of the counter-insurgency efforts in Mozambique holds lessons for regional security cooperation in tackling similar threats across East Africa.