The European Union is poised to abandon its absolute ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2035, a reversal that signals a desperate bid to save its struggling auto sector from collapsing under the weight of global competition.

For Kenya, where the roar of a combustion engine is still the sound of commerce, this policy shift in Brussels matters. It suggests that the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is hitting the brakes, potentially altering the timeline for when—or if—affordable electric alternatives reach African markets.

The 90-Percent Compromise

The European Commission is expected to formally propose replacing the total ban with a less ambitious 90-percent emission-reduction target on Tuesday. This move effectively grants a stay of execution for the internal combustion engine, allowing a small percentage of new fuel-burning vehicles to remain on the market past the original deadline.

Paula Pinho, a spokeswoman for the Commission, noted on Friday that Brussels was "aiming for balance," acknowledging a "clear demand for more flexibility on the CO2 targets." This flexibility is a direct response to a year of intense lobbying by carmakers who argued the original timeline was suicidal for the European economy.

Industry Under Siege

The backdrop to this decision is an industry in crisis. European manufacturers are facing a dual threat: fierce competition from cheaper, high-tech Chinese electric vehicles and a domestic consumer base that has been slower to adopt EVs than predicted.

Sigrid de Vries, head of the European auto lobby ACEA, described the expected reforms as a "critical milestone." Speaking in Brussels, she emphasized that "there is a lot at stake" for the sector's future. The implication is clear: without this regulatory relief, European automakers fear they cannot compete, potentially leading to job losses and factory closures.

• The Original Plan: A 100% ban on new CO2-emitting cars by 2035.
• The New Proposal: A 90% reduction target, allowing some combustion engines to survive.
• The Driver: Slower-than-expected EV adoption and Chinese market dominance.

Ripple Effects for Kenya

While Kenya primarily imports vehicles from Japan, European regulations often set the tempo for the global automotive heartbeat. A relaxation of these rules could slow the global rush toward total electrification. For the Kenyan consumer, this might mean a longer window of availability for petrol and diesel parts and vehicles, but it also risks delaying the arrival of cheaper, mass-market electric options essential for a true green transition in Nairobi.

Critics, however, warn that this U-turn undermines the EU's Green Deal. By softening the target, the EU risks signaling to investors that the era of the combustion engine is far from over, potentially stalling the very innovation needed to fight climate change.