The skies over Nairobi will remain stubbornly blue for weeks to come. In a forecast that spells anxiety for millions of farmers, the Kenya Meteorological Department has announced that the eagerly awaited "Long Rains" will not arrive in earnest until the third or fourth week of March.

This delay is a cruel twist for a nation still recovering from the climatic whiplash of recent years. The Met Department’s latest outlook predicts a "Near-Average to Below-Average" rainfall performance for the March-April-May (MAM) season across vast swathes of the country. For the agricultural heartlands and the parched northern counties, this forecast is not just weather news; it is an economic warning light. The expected dry spell between now and late March threatens to scorch seedlings and deplete already fragile water pans before the first meaningful drops fall.

Anatomy of a Delayed Season

The science points to a sluggish start. The Met Department Director, David Gikungu, has indicated that while some sporadic showers may occur, the onset of the season—defined scientifically as 20mm of rain in three days without a subsequent dry spell—is weeks away. Nairobi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, and Kiambu are squarely in the zone of this delayed onset. The implications for food security are immediate: a shortened growing season means lower yields and higher food prices in the second half of the year.

The forecast is particularly grim for the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). Regions like Isiolo and the North-East are expected to receive depressed rainfall, potentially exacerbating conflicts over pasture and water. The "poor distribution" cited by the weatherman means that when the rains do come, they may arrive in destructive torrents rather than the gentle, soaking showers that agriculture demands.

• The Dry Spell: A distinct dry period is forecast for mid-March, a critical time when farmers would typically be planting. This interruption could prove fatal for early crops.
• The Flood Risk: Despite the below-average volume, the Met has warned of "isolated heavy rainfall events." In urban centers like Nairobi, this is code for flash floods, blocked drains, and traffic chaos.
• Temperature Spike: Along with the dryness comes heat. The department has warned of warmer-than-average temperatures, increasing heat stress on both humans and livestock before the relief of the rains.

A Climate of Uncertainty

This forecast highlights the deepening unpredictability of East Africa’s climate systems. The consistent rhythm of the Long Rains, once the bedrock of the region’s calendar, has fractured. Farmers can no longer rely on traditional knowledge alone; they are at the mercy of oscillating ocean dipoles and shifting wind patterns. The advice to "plant drought-resistant crops" has moved from a suggestion to a survival imperative.

For the residents of Nairobi’s informal settlements, the delay offers a brief reprieve to clear drainage channels, but the looming threat of flash floods remains. As the city waits for the clouds to gather, the message from the Met is clear: prepare for a difficult season. The rains will come, but they will be late, they will be erratic, and they may not be enough.