Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has offered a candid, almost chilling, assessment of Kenya’s economic survival, admitting that it took "swift action and a bit of luck" to save the country from the humiliation of a sovereign debt default.

Speaking to investors, Mbadi defended the painful tax measures and austerity cuts of the past year as the bitter medicine that kept the patient alive. "We were staring at the abyss," he said, referencing the Eurobond maturity that threatened to bankrupt the exchequer. The successful buyback, he argues, was a masterstroke of timing.

The Price of Survival

But survival has come at a cost. The shilling has stabilized, but interest rates remain punishingly high, choking private sector credit. "We saved the government, but did we kill the business?" asks economist Ken Gichinga. The "luck" Mbadi refers to—support from the IMF and World Bank—came with strings attached: higher taxes and slashed subsidies.

• The Outlook: Mbadi remains optimistic, citing growing forex reserves. However, with another debt mountain looming in 2027, the Treasury cannot rely on luck forever.
• The Verdict: Kenya is out of the ICU but still in the High Dependency Unit. The next 12 months of revenue collection will determine if the recovery is real or just a temporary reprieve.