A schizophrenic weather pattern is set to divide Kenya, with the Met Department forecasting a season of punishing floods for some and withering dust for others. The released forecast for the "Long Rains" of March, April, and May paints a picture of a nation torn in two by the whims of a changing climate.

The Long Rains of 2026 are not coming to save us all. This forecast exposes the deepening climate crisis, where extreme wet and extreme dry coexist within the same borders, threatening food security, infrastructure, and lives in equal measure. It is a wake-up call that the old calendars of planting and harvest are being rewritten by nature itself.

The Rift Valley Deluge

According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, the skies will open up with vengeance over the western half of the country. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-3)The Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, and the capital, Nairobi, are in the crosshairs of "near-average to above-average" rainfall. But in meteorological speak, "above average" often translates to destruction.

Urban planners in Nairobi are already sweating. The drainage systems, perennially clogged and inadequate, are ill-equipped to handle the predicted volume. In the Rift, the risk of landslides looms large, threatening to sweep away homes built on precarious slopes. The message to these regions is clear: get ready for the water.

• The Wet Zone: Nairobi, the Rift Valley, and the Lake Victoria Basin will face heavy, potentially destructive downpours.
• The Dry Zone: The Coastal strip, Northeastern Kenya, and Southeastern lowlands face a season of depressed rainfall and dust.
• The Risk: Even in dry areas, the Met Dept warns of "isolated heavy storms" that could cause flash floods on parched earth.

A Tale of Two Climates

While the west drowns, the east will thirst. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-5)The forecast predicts depressed rainfall for the Coast and the arid Northeastern regions. This spells disaster for pastoralists and farmers who were banking on this season to recover from previous dry spells. The disparity is stark and cruel.

The Director of Meteorological Services has urged farmers in the wet zones to maximize planting but warned of post-harvest losses due to rot. Conversely, those in the dry zones are being told to plant drought-resistant crops—a polite way of saying "expect failure."

As the clouds gather menacingly over Nairobi, the sun beats down unforgivingly on Garissa, painting a portrait of a nation divided by the very skies above it.