Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot has come out swinging against a new Infotrak survey that places President William Ruto’s approval rating at a modest 28 percent, dismissing the figures as a “mathematical fiction” that ignores the administration's tangible gains on the ground.

Speaking yesterday, the Kericho Senator argued that the pollsters have fundamentally misread the national mood. While the data technically ranks President Ruto as the frontrunner for the 2027 race, the sub-30 percent figure paints a picture of a fragile incumbency—a narrative Cheruiyot was quick to dismantle.

For the Kenya Kwanza administration, the stakes of such numbers are high. The battle isn't just about leading the pack; it is about proving that painful economic reforms, from the housing levy to the new health insurance model, are finally paying political dividends. Cheruiyot insists the disconnect lies not with the President’s performance, but with the methodology of the surveyors.

The Numbers Game

The Infotrak survey, released on Sunday, offers a snapshot of a fractured political landscape. While President Ruto leads, his margin is far from the commanding heights usually enjoyed by a first-term president midway through his tenure. The data reveals a tight race for second place, with a surprise entrant disrupting the traditional opposition hierarchy.

• President William Ruto: 28% (Preferred Candidate)
• Fred Matiang’i: 13% (Former Interior CS)
• Kalonzo Musyoka: 12% (Wiper Leader)

“These polls are detached from the realities on the ground,” Cheruiyot asserted. He questioned how a government that has rolled out the Social Health Authority (SHA) and employed over 76,000 teachers could be polling below 30 percent. “You cannot measure the impact of a tarmac road or a new hospital wing with a phone call survey that ignores the people actually using them.”

Infrastructure vs. Sentiment

Cheruiyot’s defense rests heavily on the administration's “tangible development” record. He pointed specifically to the flagship Affordable Housing Programme and the expansion of the Rironi-Mau Summit road as evidence of a government at work. In his view, these projects are the true currency of voter loyalty, far outweighing the temporary dissatisfaction captured by opinion polls.

However, the “Kenyan Lens” tells a more complex story. For the average mwananchi in Nairobi or Mombasa, the macro-economic wins cited by Cheruiyot often clash with the micro-economic reality of the kitchen table. While the recruitment of teachers is a significant boost for the education sector, the cost of living remains a biting grievance that likely suppresses the President's approval numbers.

The Senator also scoffed at the opposition's prospects, particularly dismissing the threat posed by the emerging Azimio figures. He noted that the cooperation between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the government—a key feature of Ruto’s “broad-based” strategy—has stabilized the country, a factor he claims the polls failed to fully credit.

The Matiang’i Factor

Perhaps the most intriguing subplot of the survey is the emergence of Fred Matiang’i as a primary challenger, polling at 13 percent and edging out veteran Kalonzo Musyoka. This signals a potential shift in the opposition’s center of gravity, one that the ruling coalition may need to watch closely.

Yet, Cheruiyot remains unmoved. “The opposition figures lack the political weight to mount a credible challenge,” he maintained, suggesting that the President’s focus on delivery over politics will ultimately vindicate the administration in 2027.

As the political calendar turns toward the high-stakes pre-election year, the gap between government data and public sentiment remains the key battlefield. For Cheruiyot, the poll is a distraction; for the voter, it may be a warning shot.