NAIROBI — The doors to the National Treasury are open, but the question on every Kenyan’s lips is whether the invitation is for a dialogue or a lecture. In a move sharply contrasting the opaque maneuvering that triggered the Gen Z protests of 2024, Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has formally invited the public to shape the next wave of tax policies.

It is a high-stakes gamble. By asking for input before the ink is dry on the final draft, Mbadi is attempting to exorcise the ghosts of the Finance Bill 2024. Yet, beneath the democratic veneer lies a cold arithmetic: the government is broke, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is watching, and the Treasury must find at least KES 170 billion ($1.3 billion) to plug the gaping hole in the budget.

The "No New Taxes" Paradox

While the CS has repeatedly promised "no new taxes," the fine print of the proposed Tax Laws (Amendment) Bill suggests a different strategy: aggressive expansion. The government isn't necessarily creating new tax heads; it is widening the net to catch fish that previously swam free.

"We are not increasing the rates," Mbadi emphasized during a recent briefing. "We are simply ensuring that everyone who generates income in Kenya, whether physically or digitally, contributes their fair share to the national basket."

However, analysts warn that "expanding the base" often feels exactly like a new tax to those suddenly caught in it. The primary targets in this round of reforms include:

• The Digital Economy: A proposed expansion of the "digital marketplace" definition to aggressively tax ride-hailing apps (like Uber and Bolt), food delivery services, and freelance platforms.
• Remote Workers: Stricter enforcement on Kenyans working for foreign companies, requiring them to have KRA PINs and remit taxes locally.
• Withholding Tax: New mandates for public entities to withhold tax on goods supplied, tightening the noose on government tenders.

The Hustler's Burden

For the average Nairobi resident, these technical adjustments translate to real pain. The focus on the digital economy strikes directly at the heart of the "hustler" demographic—young Kenyans who turned to online work and gig economy jobs when formal employment dried up.

"If they tax my Upwork earnings and my Bolt rides, they are not taxing a corporation; they are taxing my rent and my children's school fees," says Kevin Omondi, a freelance graphic designer in Roysambu. "They call it 'compliance.' We call it survival."

The Treasury argues this is necessary equity. With the national debt hovering above KES 10.5 trillion ($81 billion), the state spends roughly KES 60 of every KES 100 collected just to service debt. The remaining KES 40 must cover salaries, development, and counties. There is simply no wiggle room.

A Crisis of Trust

The invitation for public views is technically a legal requirement, but politically, it is a survival tactic. The withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024 left a KES 346 billion ($2.6 billion) hole in the budget, forcing the government to cut development spending. Mbadi knows he cannot afford another rejection.

"The government is suffering from a massive trust deficit," notes Sheila Masinde, Executive Director of Transparency International Kenya. "Inviting views is good, but will they be incorporated? Or is this a box-ticking exercise to tell the IMF they consulted the people?"

To sweeten the deal, the Treasury is dangling a carrot: an extension of the Tax Amnesty Program to June 2025. This would allow taxpayers with penalties and interest to wipe their slate clean if they pay the principal tax. It’s a move designed to bring defaulters back into the fold rather than punishing them into bankruptcy.

As the deadline for submissions approaches, the Treasury finds itself walking a tightrope. Push too hard, and the streets may fill up again. Push too soft, and the country risks defaulting on its loans. For now, the ball is in the public's court—but the referee is still the taxman.