OTTAWA – Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority Liberal government narrowly survived a high-stakes confidence vote on its federal budget on Monday, averting a snap election that would have plunged Canada into political uncertainty. The budget passed by a razor-thin margin of 170 to 168 in the House of Commons, a victory secured only through the support of the Green Party and abstentions from some opposition members.

The vote, which concluded around 9:00 PM EAT (4:00 PM in Ottawa), was a critical test for Carney, who took leadership of the Liberal Party and became Prime Minister in March 2025 following Justin Trudeau's resignation. His government, which fell just short of a majority in the April 2025 federal election, depends on support from opposition parties to pass legislation.

Economic Blueprint Amid Global Pressures

The 2025 budget, tabled by Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne on November 4, outlines a plan to tackle Canada's economic challenges, which have been exacerbated by international trade disputes. It proposes significant new spending, including $141 billion over five years, offset by $51.2 billion in savings, to bolster the economy. Key investments target infrastructure, housing, defence, and measures to boost productivity and competitiveness, such as enhancing carbon capture technologies and investing in artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The plan projects a federal deficit of $78.3 billion for the 2025-26 fiscal year.

The survival of the budget allows the Carney government to proceed with its economic agenda, which it argues is essential for Canada's self-reliance and future prosperity. However, the close vote underscores the precarious nature of the minority government and the deep divisions in Parliament over the country's fiscal direction.

Implications for Kenya and Global Partners

While a domestic Canadian affair, the stability of its government and its policy direction have ripple effects for international partners, including Kenya. Canada and Kenya share a robust relationship, with bilateral trade and development cooperation forming key pillars. In August 2025, Canadian exports to Kenya totaled C$9.12 million, while imports from Kenya were C$7.18 million. The two nations collaborate through a Binational Commission on issues ranging from trade and security to climate change and migration. In September 2025, President William Ruto and Prime Minister Carney agreed to form a framework to advance human resource capacity, potentially easing pathways for Kenyans seeking employment in Canada.

A stable government in Ottawa is crucial for the continuity of these programs and partnerships. Canadian international assistance, which is aligned with Kenya's Vision 2030, focuses on economic opportunities, women's empowerment, and education. A potential change in government could have shifted priorities, affecting funding for development aid and joint initiatives like counter-terrorism support in East Africa. For now, the budget's passage suggests a continuation of Canada's current foreign policy and international commitments.

The Climate Change Conundrum

A critical factor in the budget vote was the government's stance on climate change. Green Party leader Elizabeth May, who commands a single but decisive vote, had initially withheld her support, citing a lack of firm commitments in the budget to Canada's obligations under the Paris Agreement. However, after securing a public, on-the-record promise from Prime Minister Carney during Monday's Question Period that Canada would meet its Paris targets, May cast her vote in favour of the government. This last-minute negotiation proved pivotal.

Canada has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and submitted a new target in February 2025 for a 45-50% reduction by 2035. The budget's survival, contingent on this climate promise, reinforces Canada's international position on environmental action—a key area of shared interest with Kenya, which is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The government's plan includes investments in clean electricity and carbon capture technologies, signaling its policy direction.

A Tense Political Landscape

The lead-up to the vote was fraught with tension, with both the Conservative Party and the Bloc Québécois vowing to vote against the budget. The Liberal government's survival ultimately depended on the abstention of four opposition MPs—two from the New Democratic Party (NDP) and two Conservatives—which lowered the threshold needed for a majority. This outcome highlights the fragile political balance in Ottawa. The previous supply-and-confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP, which had provided stability, was terminated in September 2024, leaving the government more vulnerable on confidence matters. While an immediate election has been avoided, the narrow victory leaves Prime Minister Carney navigating a deeply polarized Parliament where future legislative battles are all but certain.