Global Climate Policy at a Crossroads

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA – Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set to champion a landmark fossil fuel transition roadmap at the G20 summit, which convenes here from Friday, November 22 to Saturday, November 23, 2025. The move elevates a contentious climate proposal, first tabled at the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, to one of the world's premier economic forums. However, the initiative faces formidable opposition from a bloc of powerful G20 members, including Russia, China, India, and host nation South Africa, creating a deep fracture in global climate politics. Sources close to the COP30 negotiations reported that these nations have indicated they will not accept the proposed plan.

The Brazilian Proposal and its Opposition

President Lula's proposal advocates for a structured, global phase-out of oil, coal, and gas. The plan garnered initial support from 82 governments at the COP30 talks, but this coalition represents a mere 7% of global fossil fuel production, highlighting the immense challenge ahead. Marcio Astrini, director of the Climate Observatory campaign group, confirmed the Brazilian president's commitment, stating, “Lula told me that he was all in on the roadmap and that he would campaign for it everywhere... He understands the climate crisis is a machine that worsens poverty and inequality.” The resistance from major economies, including the "like-minded developing countries" grouping, has already led to the proposal being stripped from the latest draft of the main COP30 negotiating text, according to reports. This setback in Belém raises the stakes for Lula's diplomatic push in Johannesburg, where he will engage directly with the heads of state of opposing nations.

Implications for Kenya's Green Ambitions

This global impasse has direct relevance for Kenya, a nation that has positioned itself as a continental leader in the green energy transition. At the COP30 summit, Kenya's delegation, led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, renewed its call for a decisive global fossil fuel phase-out with clear timelines. This position is backed by Kenya's significant domestic achievements; over 90% of the country's electricity is generated from renewable sources like geothermal, wind, and solar power. The government has set an ambitious target of achieving 100% green energy by 2030.

However, Kenya's climate policy contains a significant contradiction: while championing renewables internationally, the government continues to pursue fossil fuel exploration. Plans for a licensing round for new oil and gas blocks and ambitions to begin crude oil exports from the South Lokichar basin present a policy conflict that complicates its negotiating position. The outcome of the G20 debate is therefore critical. A globally endorsed, financed roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels could provide Kenya with the international support needed to fully commit to its green path and resolve its internal policy tensions. Conversely, a victory for the petrostates could embolden domestic proponents of fossil fuel extraction and slow the flow of capital towards Kenya's renewable sector.

The Geopolitics of Climate Finance

The division within the G20 is not merely about environmental policy but is deeply intertwined with economics and development. For countries like China and India, fossil fuels are central to their industrial economies. For Russia, they are a primary source of state revenue. South Africa, the G20 host, faces its own complex energy transition, heavily reliant on coal while grappling with significant socio-economic challenges. The theme for South Africa's G20 presidency is "Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability," with a stated priority of mobilizing finance for a just energy transition.

This focus on a "just transition" is crucial for East Africa. African nations, which bear a disproportionate burden of climate impacts despite contributing the least to historical emissions, require substantial financial and technological support to shift their economies. Kenya, for instance, estimates it needs USD 600 billion for its full energy transition. The African Group of Negotiators has consistently argued that any global phase-out must be equitable and well-funded, ensuring it does not compromise the continent's development agenda. A stalemate at the G20 could jeopardize the scaling up of climate finance flows to developing nations, hindering the ability of countries like Kenya to meet their ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment

President Lula's decision to force the fossil fuel issue at the G20 summit transforms an environmental negotiation into a top-tier geopolitical test. The confrontation in Johannesburg between proponents of an accelerated green transition and the world's fossil fuel-dependent economic powerhouses will have far-reaching consequences. For Kenya and the wider East African region, the outcome will influence the pace of their own energy transitions, the availability of crucial international climate finance, and the strategic direction of their economic development for decades to come. The world will be watching to see if the G20 can forge a path toward consensus or if the fossil fuel divide will deepen, imperiling global climate goals.