GLOBAL – Brazil’s Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Marina Silva, has urged the international community to create a clear roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels at the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil. In an interview on Sunday, 16 November 2025 (EAT), Silva described the plan as an “ethical answer” to the climate crisis, while emphasizing that any resulting roadmap would be voluntary and “self-determined” for participating nations.

The call from the COP30 host nation intensifies the global debate on the future of energy, placing renewed focus on the positions of key actors, including Kenya, a nation recognized for its leadership in renewable energy yet acutely vulnerable to climate impacts. The discussions are set to be a central point of contention at the summit, which began on Monday, 10 November 2025.

The Road from Dubai to Belém

Silva's proposal aims to build on the historic 'UAE Consensus' reached at COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, which for the first time called on nations to begin “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner.” However, that landmark agreement did not include a specific timetable, a point of contention that stalled further progress at the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, amid opposition from some oil and gas-producing states.

COP29, held in November 2024, focused heavily on climate finance, resulting in a new goal for developed nations to mobilize at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035 to support developing countries. While a significant step, many climate-vulnerable nations argued the amount was insufficient, setting the stage for a high-stakes COP30 where the world will be expected to translate the COP28 pledge into a concrete action plan.

Kenya's Position: A Leader Facing Contradictions

For Kenya, the debate is particularly resonant. The nation has firmly aligned itself with a coalition of countries advocating for a decisive fossil fuel phase-out. Speaking on behalf of President William Ruto at the opening of COP30, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki reiterated Kenya's call for clear timelines, urging the summit to “settle the pending and urgent question of a global fossil fuel phase-out.”

This position is backed by Kenya's significant domestic achievements in clean energy. According to government statements, 93% of the country's electricity is generated from renewable sources like geothermal, wind, and solar power, with a target of reaching 100% green energy by 2030. This progress has been central to President Ruto's narrative, established at the Africa Climate Summits, positioning the continent as a source of climate solutions.

However, Kenya's diplomatic stance is complicated by domestic policy, as the government continues to promote new oil and gas exploration projects. This apparent contradiction highlights the immense economic and developmental pressures facing nations in the Global South. Achieving Kenya's climate goals is heavily dependent on international support; its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, but 80% of this target is conditional on receiving international finance and technology transfer.

Regional Stakes and Diplomatic Complexities

The urgency for global action is underscored by the severe climate impacts already devastating East Africa. The region is one of the world's most vulnerable, experiencing cycles of extreme drought and flooding that threaten millions of lives and livelihoods. According to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the region is expected to face drier-than-usual conditions from January to March 2025, exacerbating food and water insecurity. Agriculture, the backbone of Kenya's economy, remains acutely vulnerable to this volatility.

The position of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) reflects this complex reality. The AGN advocates for a “just and equitable transition,” stressing that any global phase-out must not shift the developmental burden onto African nations. The group argues that a blanket ban on fossil fuel investments would be unjust and that transitional fuels like natural gas are necessary to address energy poverty, with 600 million people on the continent still lacking access to electricity.

Brazil's own position is similarly nuanced. As the COP30 host, it must broker consensus. Minister Silva is a renowned environmentalist with a long history of fighting deforestation. Yet, Brazil remains a major oil producer, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government has approved new oil exploration, including in sensitive areas near the mouth of the Amazon River, arguing the revenue is needed to fund the green transition. This internal tension mirrors the global challenge: balancing immediate economic needs with long-term climate imperatives.

As negotiations continue in Belém, the call for a fossil fuel roadmap—voluntary or not—will test the world's collective resolve. For Kenya and East Africa, the outcome will have profound implications for the region's future stability, economic development, and environmental security.