PATNA, INDIA – On a misty October morning, armed excise officers sped across the Ganges River in Bihar, India's poorest state, to raid a makeshift distillery. They found a dozen warm, fermenting drums but no bootleggers; tipped off, the culprits had vanished. This scene, reported by the BBC, encapsulates the profound challenges of the statewide alcohol prohibition enacted in April 2016. Nine years on, a policy designed to protect the vulnerable has instead fostered a violent, sprawling black market, offering a stark warning for Kenyan authorities grappling with a similar scourge of illicit alcohol.

The prohibition in Bihar was introduced by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's government to address soaring rates of domestic violence, addiction, and financial ruin. Initially, the policy appeared to yield social benefits. A report in The Lancet noted that the ban led to a reduction in frequent alcohol consumption among men and a decrease in reported emotional and sexual violence by intimate partners. The National Family Health Survey for Bihar had previously shown that 83% of married women experienced violence when their spouses were frequently drunk.

However, these gains have been overshadowed by severe unintended consequences. The ban created an immediate vacuum, which was filled by a powerful liquor mafia. This has led to a thriving underground economy, with bootlegging and smuggling becoming rampant. Enforcement has proven difficult, with porous borders and alleged collusion between authorities and illegal operators undermining the law. Studies show the policy led to an increase in overall crime as police resources were diverted to enforcing the ban.

The Deadly Price of Prohibition

The most tragic outcome has been the rise of "hooch tragedies." With legal alcohol unavailable, many have turned to cheap, illegally brewed spirits, which are often contaminated with industrial methanol. Since 2016, more than 350 people have officially died from consuming this toxic liquor, though the actual number is believed to be higher. In one of the worst incidents in December 2022, at least 73 people died in the Saran district after drinking tainted alcohol. Despite these recurring tragedies, convictions remain elusive; a Bihar Police report from April 2023 revealed that out of 30 major hooch cases since 2016, there had been no final convictions.

Economically, the policy has been devastating for the state. Bihar lost approximately 15% of its own tax revenue, equivalent to 1% of its GSDP, almost overnight. This revenue loss has strained the state's ability to fund essential public services. Furthermore, the justice system has been overwhelmed, with around 450,000 people arrested for violating the law by early 2022, clogging courts and jails.

A Sobering Reflection for Kenya

Bihar's experience serves as a critical case study for Kenya, which is escalating its own war on illicit brews. On August 18, 2025, the Kenyan government, through Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, launched a 100-day nationwide crackdown on second-generation alcohol and narcotics. This initiative follows persistent challenges with illegal alcohol, which now accounts for a staggering 60% of total consumption in the country, according to a May 2025 report by the Alcoholic Beverages Association of Kenya (ABAK).

The economic toll in Kenya is immense, with the government losing an estimated KES 120 billion (US$928.1M) in annual tax revenue to the illicit trade. This figure has surged from KES 71 billion reported in 2023. Like in Bihar, the demand for these dangerous alternatives is driven by high taxes on legal alcohol, which pushes consumers toward cheaper, unregulated options.

Kenya's National Authority for the Campaign Against Alcohol and Drug Abuse (NACADA) frequently leads raids on brewing dens, destroying thousands of litres of chang'aa and busaa. A 2022 NACADA survey revealed that Western Kenya has the highest prevalence of alcohol use, with a significant portion consuming chang'aa and traditional liquor. The report also highlighted that over 1.3 million Kenyans aged 15-65 are addicted to alcohol.

The Global Consensus: Regulation Over Prohibition

The global public health consensus, led by the World Health Organization (WHO), favors regulation over outright prohibition. The WHO's SAFER initiative promotes cost-effective strategies such as increasing excise taxes, restricting alcohol availability and advertising, and enforcing drink-driving laws. The WHO's Global alcohol action plan 2022–2030 emphasizes evidence-based policies to reduce harmful consumption without the negative consequences seen in places like Bihar. The historical failure of prohibition in the United States during the 1920s, which fueled the rise of organized crime, serves as a powerful historical precedent.

As Kenya intensifies its crackdown, the lesson from Bihar is clear: enforcement alone, particularly in the form of a total ban, is insufficient and can be counterproductive. Addressing the root causes of demand, strengthening regulation of the legal market, and implementing evidence-based public health campaigns are critical. Without a multi-faceted strategy, Kenya risks mirroring Bihar's tragic cycle of a flourishing black market, lost revenue, and preventable deaths, undermining the very public health goals it seeks to achieve.