Extensive Thunderstorm Outbreak Hits Eastern Australia

Millions of Australians across the northern and eastern parts of the country, including the major cities of Sydney, Brisbane, and Canberra, are facing a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak on Saturday, November 15, 2025. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has warned of the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. The extensive storm risk stretches from the country's tropical north and Western Australia down to eastern Victoria.

The severe weather is being fueled by a combination of high moisture levels in the atmosphere, drawn down from the tropics, and low-pressure troughs creating unstable conditions ripe for storm formation, according to BoM senior meteorologist Angus Hines. The event follows storms in south-east Queensland on Friday, November 14, which caused power outages for over 11,000 homes. Energy provider Energex reported that approximately 2,000 customers in the region were still without power on Saturday morning, East Africa Time.

Global Climate Drivers: The Bigger Picture for Kenya

While this severe weather event is geographically distant, its meteorological underpinnings are linked to broader climate phenomena that have direct and significant consequences for Kenya and East Africa. The primary drivers are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These large-scale climate drivers dictate rainfall and temperature patterns across both continents.

Currently, the Indian Ocean Dipole is in a strong negative phase. A negative IOD is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean (near Australia) and cooler-than-average temperatures in the western Indian Ocean (near the Horn of Africa). This pattern typically leads to wetter, stormier conditions in southern and eastern Australia while often resulting in drier conditions or reduced rainfall over East Africa. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported the latest weekly IOD index value was -1.57°C for the week ending November 9, 2025, and noted that this negative event is expected to weaken in November and return to neutral in December.

Simultaneously, there are signs that a La Niña event may be developing in the Pacific Ocean, though ENSO remains officially neutral. La Niña, the counterpart to El Niño, involves the cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. For Australia, La Niña typically brings wetter conditions, while for East Africa, particularly during the 'short rains' season (October-December), it can contribute to drier-than-average conditions. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center and other international bodies noted on November 13 and 14, 2025, that La Niña is favored to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Implications of a Changing Climate

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as the current storms in Australia and the recent severe droughts in East Africa, are consistent with projections from climate scientists regarding global warming. Reports from bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Australian government's own environmental agencies confirm that climate change is exacerbating these natural cycles. For Australia, this has meant longer and more extreme fire seasons and more intense rainfall events. For Kenya, it has manifested as devastating droughts—the 2020-2022 drought was the worst in four decades—and unpredictable, often destructive, rainfall.

The interconnectedness of these climate systems highlights the shared vulnerability of nations to climate change. A strong negative IOD that brings floods to Australia can simultaneously contribute to drought conditions that threaten food security for millions in Kenya. This underscores the importance of global cooperation and domestic action on climate change, a point of political contention in Australia that holds lessons for vulnerable nations like Kenya. As these climate drivers continue to fluctuate and intensify, monitoring their status is crucial for forecasting and preparing for potential extreme weather impacts in East Africa.