A prominent member of the US House Armed Services Committee has proposed expanding the AUKUS security pact to include additional shipbuilding nations, such as Japan, South Korea, or Norway. This suggestion comes amidst ongoing concerns about the United States' ability to significantly boost its defence manufacturing capacity to meet its own needs while also supplying nuclear submarines to Australia under the AUKUS agreement.

The proposal by Congressman Adam Smith, the Democratic leader of the House Armed Services Committee, highlights the challenges facing the US defence industrial base. He emphasised that while AUKUS is crucial for US national security, America needs to build more submarines and cannot achieve this alone.

Context of AUKUS and US Capacity

AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, aims to enhance security in the Indo-Pacific region, primarily through Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently concluded a visit to Washington D.C., securing endorsements for AUKUS from both former President Donald Trump and key members of the US Congress.

Despite this political backing, questions remain about the practicalities of the US fulfilling its commitment to supply submarines. US shipyards are currently struggling to meet America's own naval requirements, raising doubts about their capacity to produce additional vessels for Australia.

Implications for Kenya and Regional Security

While AUKUS is focused on the Indo-Pacific, its expansion and the broader strengthening of global defence manufacturing could have indirect implications for Kenya and East African maritime security. Increased naval presence and technological advancements by major powers in international waters could influence regional stability and trade routes. Kenya, with its strategic coastline and growing blue economy, closely monitors developments in global maritime security.

Stakeholder Perspectives

Congressman Smith's remarks underscore a growing recognition within US political circles that the nation's defence industrial base requires substantial investment and potential international collaboration to meet evolving security demands. His suggestion to bring in other shipbuilding nations aims to leverage their expertise and capacity to bolster the collective defence capabilities of the AUKUS partners and potentially beyond.

Evidence and Data

• AUKUS Agreement: Signed in September 2021, the pact involves Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, with technology transfer from the US and UK.
• US Submarine Production: The US Navy aims to build two Virginia-class attack submarines per year, but has faced challenges in consistently meeting this target due to workforce and supply chain issues.
• Proposed Expansion Nations: Japan, South Korea, and Norway are recognised for their advanced shipbuilding capabilities and technological expertise.

Unanswered Questions and Controversies

The specific mechanisms for integrating new nations into an expanded AUKUS, including technology sharing protocols and operational command structures, remain undefined. Furthermore, the political and economic feasibility of such an expansion, particularly concerning the sensitive nature of nuclear submarine technology, would require extensive diplomatic negotiations.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely watching for further discussions within the US Congress and among AUKUS member states regarding the feasibility and desirability of expanding the pact. Any concrete steps towards including new nations would signal a significant shift in global defence alliances and could lead to a re-evaluation of strategic partnerships worldwide. The pace at which the US can address its own defence manufacturing bottlenecks will also be a critical factor in the future of AUKUS commitments.