A Tale of Two Economies

BEIJING, China – On Tuesday, November 18, 2025 (EAT), the economic narrative of Anshan, a city in Northeast China's Liaoning province, presented a study in contradiction. For years, the city has been lauded as a model of post-industrial transformation, shifting its economic engine from the declining steel industry to the booming 'pet economy'. However, recent reports present starkly different accounts of this transition, leaving the city's future economic trajectory in question.

One narrative, supported by statements from local officials, portrays a thriving pet industry. According to Han Wei, deputy director of Anshan's bureau of agriculture and rural affairs, the city is now the largest pet-breeding base in China. Official reports claim that last year, 1.5 million dogs and cats were bred and sold from Anshan, with projections expected to reach 2 million this year. This burgeoning sector reportedly involves more than 30,000 residents in breeding and related services, with a base animal population of over 500,000. The industry's growth was seen as a lifeline for thousands of steelworkers laid off since the 1980s from giants like Ansteel Group Corp., which faced overcapacity and dwindling demand.

Conversely, other reports published on the same day paint a grim picture of a faltering experiment. These accounts suggest a significant contraction in the city's pet industry, linked to a resurgence in the traditional steel sector. One report alleges a sharp drop in pet breeding activities, with fewer than 10,000 residents now involved in the trade—a significant decline from the previously touted figures. These sources claim the city's share of China's domestic pet dogs has fallen to below 40%, a steep drop from the 70% figure cited in more optimistic reports. This downturn is attributed to a renewed focus on heavy industry, market saturation, and regulatory hurdles, leading to a decline in pet transactions from their 2024 peak of 1.5 million. The ambitious goal of 2 million transactions for the current year now appears increasingly uncertain. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED.

The National Context: A Booming Pet Market

Anshan's pivot, whether successful or struggling, is set against the backdrop of China's massive and rapidly growing pet economy. Driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and evolving social norms where pets are increasingly viewed as family members, the market is experiencing explosive growth. In 2024, China's urban pet consumption market exceeded 300 billion yuan ($42 billion). Projections indicate the national market could reach 811.4 billion yuan by 2025. This expansion is a key component of the national strategy to boost domestic consumption, a central theme of the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). The plan aims to create a robust domestic market by expanding household spending on goods and services.

Global Significance and Kenyan Context

The developments in China's pet industry have global implications, impacting supply chains for pet-related goods worldwide. While direct ties between Anshan's breeding industry and East Africa are not extensively documented, the broader trade relationship is evident. China is Kenya's largest trading partner, and pet food is a growing import category. In 2022, Kenya's dog and cat food market reached 2,568 metric tons, with imports valued at US$3.7 million. While the bulk of these imports come from other countries, the increasing presence of Chinese goods in the Kenyan market suggests a potential for growth in this sector.

The Kenyan pet food market itself is on an upward trajectory, driven by increasing pet ownership and a growing awareness of pet nutrition. A 2022 survey found that 54% of Kenyan respondents owned at least one pet. However, the local market faces challenges, including competition from established international brands and reliance on imported raw materials. The potential influx of competitively priced products from large-scale breeding and manufacturing hubs like those in China could further shape the landscape for Kenyan consumers and local businesses.

The conflicting reports from Anshan serve as a critical case study in economic diversification. Whether the city is successfully riding the wave of the pet economy or retreating to its industrial past holds lessons for other regions undergoing similar transitions. For now, the story of Anshan is one of uncertainty, highlighting the complexities and potential pitfalls of large-scale economic transformation. The outcome of this pivot will be closely watched, both within China and by international observers tracking the evolution of the global pet industry.