While Kenya’s oil dreams in Turkana remain bogged down in bureaucratic limbo, Nigeria has just offered a masterclass in closing the deal. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) has confirmed that Shell is advancing a colossal USD 20 billion (KES 2.6 trillion) investment in the Bonga South West project, signaling a massive vote of confidence in the West African giant.

NNPC Group CEO Bayo Ojulari revealed that the deal is not just paper talk; it is a direct result of President Bola Tinubu’s aggressive policy reforms designed to woo global capital. For Kenya, observing from the sidelines, the contrast is stark. While Nairobi dithers on the Field Development Plan (FDP) for Tullow Oil, Lagos is signing cheques that will revive its economy for decades.

The "Tina" Effect

Ojulari’s comments at the State House in Abuja highlighted a critical reality of the modern energy market: capital is finite and flighty. "Everybody is competing for global capital," Ojulari warned. Shell’s decision to pour billions into Nigeria’s deep offshore waters is credited to a stable, transparent investment climate—something investors "can touch and feel."

Lessons for Nairobi

The economic implications of the Bonga South West project are staggering and offer a blueprint for what Kenya is missing:

• Industrial Revival: The project will resurrect Nigeria’s idle fabrication yards, creating thousands of welding and engineering jobs that had evaporated.
• Long-Term Gain: The lifespan of the project promises 20 to 30 years of sustained employment and supply chain contracts.

As Shell moves towards a Final Investment Decision (FID), the message to East Africa is loud and clear: Investors do not wait for potential; they follow policy. Unless Kenya streamlines its petroleum laws and resolves the Turkana impasse, the oil boom will remain a mirage, while Nigeria’s fabrication yards roar back to life.