Afghanistan is aggressively diversifying its trade routes through Iran and Central Asian nations, a strategic pivot accelerated by worsening diplomatic ties and costly, prolonged border closures with Pakistan. This shift, confirmed by Taliban officials and trade data, aims to mitigate economic damage from the breakdown in relations with its historically largest trading partner and could realign regional economic dependencies.

The latest escalation follows deadly border clashes in October 2025, which led to the shutdown of key crossings like Torkham for over a month. The closure has inflicted staggering losses, with Afghan traders reporting daily losses of approximately $2 million to $2.5 million, and cumulative losses for both sides estimated at nearly $500 million. Thousands of trucks, many carrying perishable goods like fresh fruit and vegetables, have been stranded for weeks, leading to significant spoilage and financial ruin for traders.

In response, Kabul is actively promoting alternatives. According to Afghanistan's Ministry of Industry and Commerce, trade with Iran reached $1.6 billion over the past six months, surpassing the $1.1 billion in trade with Pakistan during the same period, as reported on Friday, November 14, 2025 (EAT). Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, has accused Islamabad of using trade as political leverage and urged Afghan traders to redirect their commerce.

The Chabahar Advantage

Central to this strategy is Iran's Chabahar Port, developed with significant Indian investment. The port offers Afghanistan a crucial, reliable alternative to Pakistan's Karachi port. Iran is actively incentivizing Afghan traders with a 30% reduction in port tariffs, a 75% cut in storage fees, and a 55% discount on docking charges. Officials in Tehran and Kabul have highlighted that Chabahar is not only more secure from political disruptions but also more cost-effective, potentially reducing shipping costs by 60% and transit times by 50% for goods moving between India and Central Asia.

Trade volumes are also increasing through routes in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, facilitated by new transit agreements and expanded Afghan trade offices in Iran. In 2024, bilateral trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan reached $1.1 billion, with plans to increase it to $2 billion in 2025.

Economic Fallout and Regional Implications

The trade disruption has severe economic consequences for both nations. Pakistan's exports to Afghanistan, which stood near $1.5 billion in 2024, have been crippled. One report suggests Pakistan has lost over 65% of its market share in Afghanistan to regional competitors due to the repeated closures. The Torkham border shutdown alone is estimated to cost Pakistan between $1.5 to $2 million daily in lost exports. The crisis has also created widespread unemployment for thousands of laborers, drivers, and traders in Pakistani border towns.

For Afghanistan, the situation is dire. The landlocked country's economy, already fragile, is projected by the World Bank to grow by only 2.2% in 2025, a rate slower than its population growth. The economy is strained by declining foreign aid, a widening trade deficit, and the influx of over two million returnees from Pakistan and Iran. According to the United Nations, 22.9 million Afghans require life-saving assistance in 2025.

While Pakistan offers the geographically shortest and cheapest route to the sea, its perceived unreliability has forced Kabul's hand. "We need all transit routes to remain open," stated Azarakhsh Hafizi, former head of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce, highlighting the importance of Pakistani routes for regional economic integration. However, the prevailing sentiment among Afghan officials is the need to end economic dependence on Islamabad.

Relevance for Kenya and East Africa

The direct commercial impact of this Central Asian trade dispute on Kenya appears limited. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Kenya's main export to Afghanistan is tea, valued at $30.8 million in 2023. Total exports from Kenya to Afghanistan were $32.9 million in 2023, a significant decrease from previous years. The UN COMTRADE database reported Kenyan exports to Afghanistan at $10.17 million in 2024. While disruptions could affect logistics for these shipments, the shift towards Chabahar Port, which provides a direct maritime link to East Africa, could potentially stabilize or even improve this trade corridor in the long term. However, the overall trade volume remains modest, suggesting the broader geopolitical realignments are of greater significance than the immediate economic effects for the East Africa region. No official statements from the Kenyan government or regional bodies regarding the Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions have been noted.