The race for 2027 has officially kicked off, and the gloves are coming off within the opposition. Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka has declared that the Azimio la Umoja coalition will unveil its presidential candidate by early 2026, signaling an end to the "wait and see" approach. As President William Ruto lines up his own political machinery for a second term, the opposition is scrambling to put its house in order before time runs out.

Kalonzo, who has played the loyal deputy and diplomat for nearly two decades, is making it clear that he expects to be the main man this time. "We must be very clear now. Let us go to the negotiating table and agree," Kalonzo said in a recent interview, emphasizing that the outcome of the 2027 election will be defined by the actions taken in 2026. The "Watermelon" tag is being shed for a more assertive, combative persona as he tours his Ukambani strongholds and reaches out to the mountain region.

The Raila Factor

The elephant in the room remains Raila Odinga. With the ODM leader gunning for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, a position that would effectively remove him from local politics until 2028, a vacuum is opening at the top of Azimio. Kalonzo’s strategy hinges on Raila’s exit.

"If Raila goes to Addis, Kalonzo is the natural heir," says political analyst Herman Manyora. "But politics hates a vacuum. Others like Eugene Wamalwa and potential defectors from Kenya Kwanza are also watching that seat." Indeed, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa has already declared his interest, stating he is "sufficiently prepared" to lead. The jostling for the flagbearer position threatens to fracture the fragile coalition before the campaign even begins.

• The Strategy: Azimio is planning a series of grassroots registration drives and town hall meetings to reinvigorate its base. The focus is on the cost of living, high taxation, and the "broken promises" of the Ruto administration.
• The Ruto Counter-Move: President Ruto is not sitting idle. He has lined up his own series of "development tours" across the country, effectively launching his re-election campaign. His strategy involves consolidating the Western and Coast voting blocks to render Azimio irrelevant.
• The Timeline: Kalonzo has set a deadline of "early 2026" for the coalition to agree on a lineup. This is designed to give the candidate enough time to build a national campaign war chest, estimated to require over KSh 15 billion.

"No More Betrayal"

For Kalonzo’s supporters, the message is simple: "No more betrayal." They argue that the Kamba community has supported Raila three times (2013, 2017, 2022) and it is now payback time. "Kalonzo has stood firm. He has been insulted, sidelined, but he stayed," said Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua. "2027 is his time. We will not accept anything less."

As the political drums begin to beat, ordinary Kenyans are watching with a mix of cynicism and hope. With the economy still struggling and taxes rising, the 2027 election will not be fought on tribal arithmetic alone, but on the price of unga and the reality of the pocket.