The battle for the heart of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has shifted to the border. Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has stormed Busia County with a defiant message: "This is our turf, and we are not sharing."

In a high-octane tour dubbed "Linda Mwananchi," Sifuna and his allies have declared Busia to be ODM’s "single largest stronghold," dismissing the traditional dominance of Nyanza. This is not just geography; it is a power play. By elevating Busia, Sifuna is attempting to build a new power base independent of the old guard. The tour is a direct counter to the "Linda Ground" initiative led by Oburu Oginga, exposing a widening rift within the party. Sifuna, daring his critics to unseat him, vowed to stand his ground against what he sees as the "state capture" of the opposition.

The Two ODMs

The spectacle in Busia revealed a party split down the middle. On one side, the "Linda Ground" faction, seen as pro-cooperation with the government. On the other, Sifuna’s "Linda Mwananchi" brigade, which preaches resistance and purity. Sifuna publicly disowned the Linda Ground rallies, stating authoritatively that "not a shilling" from ODM headquarters funded them. This financial disavowal is a nuclear option in party politics, effectively delegitimizing the rival faction.

• The Numbers Game: Sifuna's claim about Busia being the top stronghold is a calculated move to flatter the Mulembe nation and consolidate Western Kenya as the new engine of the party, stepping out of the shadow of Luo Nyanza.
• The UDA Threat: The subtext of the Busia tour is the creeping influence of the ruling UDA party. Sifuna warned that any flirtation with the government is a death sentence for the opposition.
• The Violence: The tension is physical. Previous grassroots elections in Busia were marred by violence, and the current rhetoric suggests that the gloves are off.

Standing His Ground

Sifuna is playing a dangerous game. By openly defying the party chairman and the pro-government faction, he is risking isolation. But in Busia, surrounded by cheering crowds, he looked like a man in charge. "Let them try to remove me," he seemed to say.

As the sun sets on Busia, the question remains: Can ODM survive this civil war? Sifuna has drawn his line in the sand. Now we wait to see who crosses it.