US President Donald Trump has opened a volatile new front in his economic diplomacy, threatening to slap an additional 5% tariff on Mexico if the neighboring nation fails to immediately release water to drought-stricken American farmers.

The ultimatum, delivered via his Truth Social platform on Monday, accuses Mexico of violating a decades-old treaty. This escalation signals a shift from traditional manufacturing disputes to resource conflict, highlighting how environmental scarcity is increasingly driving geopolitical tension—a reality that resonates with observers in East Africa where water rights remain a critical diplomatic flashpoint.

The 1944 Treaty in Dispute

At the heart of the conflict is a bilateral agreement signed in 1944, designed to manage the shared waterways of the Rio Grande and the Colorado River. The treaty stipulates a complex exchange system:

• Mexico's Obligation: Must send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the US from the Rio Grande every five years.
• US Obligation: Must allocate 1.5 million acre-feet annually from the Colorado River to Mexico.

President Trump alleges that Mexico has fallen significantly behind on these payments. In his statement, he claimed Mexico "owes" the US 800,000 acre-feet of water due to accumulated violations over the last five-year cycle.

Ultimatum for Texas

The President’s demand is specific and time-bound. He has ordered Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31, with the remainder to follow "soon after." He cited the plight of agriculture in Texas, noting that the shortage is devastating crops and livestock in the border state.

"As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water," Trump wrote. "That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY."

A Global Warning

While the Rio Grande is thousands of miles from Nairobi, the mechanics of this dispute offer a stark warning. Just as Kenya navigates complex water-sharing agreements regarding Lake Victoria and the Nile Basin, the US-Mexico row demonstrates that even long-standing treaties can buckle under the pressure of agricultural demand and political populism.

Analysts warn that if implemented, these tariffs could ripple through global markets, potentially strengthening the US dollar and putting pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Kenya Shilling. For now, the world watches to see if Mexico will turn on the taps, or if Trump will turn up the economic heat.