On the frozen streets of Moscow, the mood is not one of celebration, but of endurance. As the first light of 2026 broke over the Kremlin, BBC Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg took to the capital’s thoroughfares to ask a simple question: What are you hoping for?

The answers, delivered through clouds of condensed breath, paint a picture of a superpower that is tired. After nearly four years of a "Special Military Operation" that was supposed to last weeks, the Russian public is no longer speaking in the unified roar of 2022, but in a fractured whisper of anxiety and cautious hope.

But the real story of January 1st wasn't just on the streets of Moscow. It was in a defiant yet cryptic message from Kyiv that has global markets—and Kenyan policymakers—sitting up straight.

The '90% Ready' Bombshell

While President Vladimir Putin used his New Year address to tell troops he "believed in their victory," his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelensky, offered a statistic that rang louder than any artillery shell. In his own address, Zelensky claimed a peace deal is "90% ready."

This is the first time a specific figure has been put on diplomatic progress since the Istanbul talks collapsed in 2022. While details remain scarce, analysts suggest the deal likely involves complex security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for a ceasefire—a move that could freeze the conflict lines.

"We are tired," one Muscovite told Rosenberg, glancing nervously at the camera. "We just want our sons back. We want 2026 to be the year of silence."

Others remained defiant, echoing the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is fighting for its existence against the West. But as Rosenberg noted, the swagger of previous years is gone, replaced by a grim determination to simply survive the winter.

Why This Matters in Nairobi

Let’s bring this home. Why should a grandmother in Eldoret or a boda boda rider in Kisumu care about Steve Rosenberg’s interviews in Moscow? Because this war has been a silent tax on every Kenyan household for nearly four years.

The conflict disrupted global supply chains, sending the cost of fuel and fertilizer skyrocketing. When Russia and Ukraine—two of the world's breadbaskets—stopped exporting at full capacity, the price of wheat flour in Kenya surged.

• Fertilizer: Russia is a top global exporter. A peace deal could normalize trade, lowering input costs for Kenyan farmers ahead of the long rains.
• Fuel: Geopolitical stability usually calms oil markets. A drop in global crude prices directly translates to a stronger Kenya Shilling (KES) and cheaper pump prices.
• Grain: Full restoration of Black Sea shipping routes would stabilize global wheat prices, easing the burden on Kenyan millers and consumers.

The Devil in the Last 10%

However, we must temper our optimism with caution. In diplomacy, the last 10% is often harder than the first 90%. The sticking points are likely territorial control and the status of Crimea—issues neither side has shown a willingness to compromise on publicly.

Moreover, Putin’s rhetoric remains uncompromising. His speech focused on "victory," not compromise. If the Kremlin views the proposed deal as a capitulation, the fighting could intensify before it ends, as both sides try to maximize their leverage on the ground.

As Rosenberg concluded in his report, the hope in Russia is fragile. It is a hope born of exhaustion rather than optimism. For the world, and for Kenya, the coming weeks will determine if 2026 is the year the guns finally fall silent, or if we are bracing for another year of expensive fuel and geopolitical chaos.

"Hope is a dangerous thing," one elderly Russian woman told the BBC. "But right now, it is all we have."