Former Nyeri Town Member of Parliament, Ngunjiri Wambugu, has publicly forecasted a potential retreat for his former ally, Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, from the increasingly volatile Mbeere North by-election campaign. In a series of social media posts on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, Wambugu suggested the political climate in the constituency is becoming untenable for the former Deputy President.

"I hear the heat might be more than Jofri expected in Mbeere North and he will not be able to stay there until the 27th as he promised," Wambugu stated, alluding to Gachagua. He asserted that the ground is shifting rapidly and that voters are not responding positively to what he described as Gachagua's "bitterness," which he claimed is negatively impacting the campaign of the united opposition's candidate, Newton Karish of the Democratic Party (DP).

The Mbeere North seat, left vacant after Geoffrey Ruku was appointed to the cabinet, has become a high-stakes political battleground. The by-election, scheduled for November 27, is widely seen as a litmus test for political dominance in the Mt. Kenya region, pitting the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) against a united opposition. The contest has drawn in national political heavyweights, transforming it into a proxy war between President William Ruto's camp and the opposition, which includes Gachagua.

A Battle for Mt. Kenya's Soul

The by-election is shaping up to be a direct confrontation between Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who is leading the UDA campaign for candidate Leonard Wamuthende, and his predecessor Gachagua, who is vigorously campaigning for Karish. Professor Kindiki has vowed to teach Gachagua "a political lesson he will never forget" and has pledged to remain in the constituency until after the election.

The political tensions have been palpable, with both sides accusing each other of plotting violence and intimidation. Gachagua has alleged that the state is using intimidation and money to influence the outcome, while UDA's national chairperson, Governor Cecily Mbarire, has filed a police report accusing Gachagua's camp of planning to ferry in outsiders to cause chaos. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has flagged Mbeere North as a volatile area ahead of the poll.

Wambugu, who has publicly distanced himself from Gachagua since May 2025 over ideological differences concerning the political direction of the Mt. Kenya region, also took a swipe at Gachagua's campaign tactics. He mocked photos of Gachagua sharing tea with residents door-to-door, a strategy also noted by Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku.

Wider Political Implications

The outcome of the Mbeere North by-election is expected to have significant repercussions for the political landscape of Mt. Kenya. A win for UDA would bolster President Ruto's and Deputy President Kindiki's influence in a region that was once considered Gachagua's stronghold. Conversely, a victory for the opposition-backed candidate would be a symbolic triumph for Gachagua, demonstrating his continued relevance and support base following his impeachment in October 2024.

Political analysts observe that the constituency, with its history of independent voting patterns, provides a fertile ground for this political showdown. The intense campaigning by top national leaders underscores the strategic importance of this single parliamentary seat as a barometer of political alignments and power dynamics heading towards the 2027 general elections.

As the campaign enters its final stretch, the focus remains on whether the escalating pressure will vindicate Wambugu's prediction of a Gachagua withdrawal or if the former Deputy President will hold his ground in this critical political test.