NAIROBI — The road to Uganda’s January 2026 general election has taken a perilous turn after a violent crackdown on opposition supporters in Gulu left scores injured, prompting a leading human rights organisation to warn that the country’s democratic process is being “systematically dismantled.”

The clashes, which erupted late Sunday, mark a significant escalation in the standoff between the state and the National Unity Platform (NUP) led by Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine. With less than two months to the ballot, the specter of the bloody 2020 campaign season hangs heavy over the region.

Tear Gas and Live Bullets in Gulu

Witnesses in Gulu City reported a chaotic scene as security forces dispersed a gathering of NUP supporters who had convened for a mobilization drive. Footage circulating on social media—verified by regional observers—shows police firing tear gas canisters into the crowd, while unconfirmed reports suggest live ammunition was used to scatter fleeing youth.

“It was not a rally; it was a town hall meeting,” a local NUP coordinator told Streamline News by phone. “They came with trucks and started beating people without warning. This is not policing; it is intimidation.”

A prominent Uganda-based human rights watchdog immediately condemned the incident, issuing a statement that described the police action as “disproportionate and politically motivated.” The group warned that the shrinking civic space in Northern Uganda is a calculated move to stifle opposition voices in a region that has become a critical battleground.

The Kenyan Connection: Why It Matters Here

For the Kenyan reader, the turmoil next door is not just foreign news—it is a mirror and a warning. The crackdown in Gulu comes barely a month after a diplomatic row involving the abduction of two Kenyan nationals, Bob Njagi and Nicholas Oyoo.

The two men, who went missing for 39 days before being released in early November 2025, were accused by President Yoweri Museveni of being “experts in riots” working with Bobi Wine’s camp. Museveni claimed, without providing public evidence, that Ugandan intelligence had disrupted their plans to destabilize the country.

• The Accusation: Museveni linked the Kenyans to a plot to incite violence similar to the November 2020 riots.
• The Response: Bobi Wine fiercely defended the Kenyans, calling the allegations a fabrication designed to isolate his movement regionally.
• The Impact: The incident highlighted how easily Kenyan citizens can become collateral damage in Kampala’s political power struggles.

‘We Will Not Be Cowed’

President Museveni, who has ruled Uganda since 1986, has repeatedly warned that he will not tolerate “foreign interference” or “anarchy” disguised as politics. In a televised address last month, he lauded his security forces for their vigilance, signaling that the state’s apparatus is fully mobilized to protect the status quo.

Conversely, the opposition remains defiant. Speaking from Kampala, NUP spokesperson Joel Ssenyonyi emphasized that the violence in Gulu would only galvanize their base. “They think breaking our bones will break our spirit,” he noted. “But they forget that hunger for change is stronger than fear.”

As the January polls draw closer, the international community is watching closely. But for the families in Gulu nursing injuries today, and for Kenyans watching the borders, the question remains: will the ballot box bring change, or just more bruises?