The United States has put its long-standing partnership with Tanzania under comprehensive review, a stark diplomatic escalation following deadly post-election violence and what Washington calls growing threats to its citizens and investments.

For Kenya and the wider East African Community, the move signals dangerous instability in a critical neighbour. At stake are not just diplomatic ties, but a deep economic partnership that channels billions into the region and underpins security cooperation against threats like terrorism.

A Partnership Under Strain

In a sharply worded statement on Thursday, the U.S. Department of State noted that recent actions by the Tanzanian government “raise grave concerns about the direction of our bilateral relationship and the reliability of the Tanzanian Government as a partner.”

The review was triggered by a confluence of alarming events. Washington explicitly cited the violent aftermath of Tanzania's October 29 general election, which saw security forces use lethal force against protesters. The State Department also highlighted:

• Ongoing repression of free speech and religious freedom.
• Persistent obstacles to U.S. investment.
• Disturbing violence against civilians before and after the vote.

The situation has grown so tense that the U.S. Embassy in Dar es Salaam issued a security alert for its citizens, warning of potential nationwide protests beginning as early as December 5.

What This Means for Kenya's Economy

The diplomatic fallout could have significant consequences for Kenyans. The U.S. partnership with Tanzania is a major economic anchor for East Africa, with total American contributions to the country estimated at $2.8 billion (approx. KES 362 billion) annually between 2012 and 2022. U.S. foreign direct investment stock in Tanzania stands at $1.3 billion (approx. KES 168 billion).

Any disruption to this relationship threatens the stability of a key Kenyan trading partner. In 2023, trade between Kenya and Tanzania was robust, with Kenya exporting goods worth $451 million (approx. KES 58 billion) to its neighbour, while importing goods valued at $334 million (approx. KES 43 billion). Instability in Tanzania could disrupt these crucial trade flows, affecting businesses and jobs in Kenya.

Analysts are now watching closely to see how President Samia Suluhu Hassan's government will respond. The U.S. State Department has made it clear that the path forward depends entirely on Dar es Salaam. As the statement concluded, “The future of our bilateral relationship with the Government of Tanzania will be based on its actions.”