A fragile peace process in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo faces a critical test as M23 rebels withdraw from a key city amid reports of fresh attacks, prompting a high-level US call for intervention.

The withdrawal from Uvira, a strategic hub on Lake Tanganyika, was meant to be a trust-building measure. However, for Kenya and the wider East African Community, the escalating volatility threatens to spill across borders, jeopardising trade, security, and years of diplomatic investment aimed at stabilising a crucial neighbour.

In a statement on Friday, influential U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham welcomed the M23's departure from Uvira but voiced serious concern over unfolding events. “I am disheartened to hear these withdrawing troops are being attacked,” Graham noted. “It is critical the United States maintains its leadership role and brings the parties back to the table.”

The rebel group, under its political umbrella Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), announced its unilateral withdrawal on December 16, citing progress in the Qatar-led Doha peace process and a framework agreement signed on November 15. The move came after significant international pressure, particularly from the United States, following the rebels' capture of the city earlier in December.

A High-Stakes Withdrawal

Uvira is more than just another city. Its location near the Burundian border makes it a vital commercial hub and a strategic military prize. The city's fall to the M23 rebels was a major setback for the Congolese army (FARDC) and triggered a humanitarian crisis, displacing over 200,000 people.

The M23's exit is therefore a significant development, but one fraught with risk. The group has called for a neutral force to demilitarise the city and protect civilians, warning against any attempts by government forces to exploit the withdrawal. The attacks on their departing fighters, as highlighted by Senator Graham, underscore the deep mistrust that plagues the conflict.

Kenya's Enduring Stake in Congo's Peace

For Nairobi, the events in South Kivu are not a distant crisis. Kenya has invested significant political and financial capital in seeking peace in the DRC, spearheading the EAC-led "Nairobi Process" to facilitate dialogue between the Congolese government and various armed groups.

The stability of the eastern DRC has direct implications for Kenya's economy:

• Trade Routes: The DRC is a major destination for goods transiting through the Port of Mombasa, and instability disrupts this vital economic corridor.
• Investment: Kenyan companies, particularly in the banking and aviation sectors, have made significant investments in the DRC, viewing it as a key growth market. Ongoing conflict places these ventures at risk.
• Regional Security: As a key member of the East African Community, Kenya views the protracted conflict as a threat to the entire Great Lakes region, with the potential for refugee flows and cross-border insecurity.

While Kenya has championed diplomatic solutions, its role has faced challenges, with Kinshasa at times favouring security partnerships with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) over the EAC's initiatives. Senator Graham's call for sustained U.S. engagement could provide renewed momentum for peace talks, a process where Kenya has historically played a central role. The path forward remains uncertain, hinging on whether this tactical withdrawal can be transformed into a durable ceasefire and a genuine step towards lasting peace.