The United States Coast Guard is in an "active pursuit" of a third sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea, a US official confirmed Sunday, intensifying a maritime blockade against Venezuela that threatens to disrupt global oil supply. The vessel, identified by news outlets as the Bella 1, is being targeted as part of Washington's escalating pressure campaign to choke off revenue to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government.

This high-seas drama, unfolding thousands of kilometres away, carries significant weight for the Kenyan economy. As a net importer of oil, Kenya is directly vulnerable to global price shocks. Any disruption to the flow of crude oil, even the 1% of global supply controlled by Venezuela, can add upward pressure on the price of Brent crude, the benchmark for fuel prices in East Africa.

A Widening Campaign

The pursuit of the Bella 1 follows the seizure of two other tankers in the past two weeks. On December 16, US President Donald Trump announced a blockade of "sanctioned oil vessels" sailing to and from the South American nation. An unnamed US official noted the vessel was a "sanctioned dark fleet vessel that is part of Venezuela's illegal sanctions evasion," adding that it was flying a false flag and was under a judicial seizure order.

The Bella 1 has been under US sanctions since 2024 due to alleged ties to Iran and Hezbollah. According to maritime tracking services, the tanker has a history of moving Iranian and Venezuelan crude, primarily to China, and was empty of cargo as it approached Venezuela.

What This Means for the Pump in Kenya

For Kenyans grappling with the high cost of living, events in the Caribbean could translate to more pain at the petrol station. The price of fuel in Kenya is determined by several factors, including the landed cost of imported petroleum, government taxes, and the strength of the shilling against the US dollar. A spike in global oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions like the current US-Venezuela standoff, directly increases this landed cost.

Analysts warn that increased US interdictions create uncertainty in the market, which can drive up prices. While a White House official downplayed the immediate impact on US consumers, oil traders told Reuters that the seizures are likely to drive oil prices higher as markets react to the heightened geopolitical risk.

• Direct Impact: Heightened geopolitical tension adds a "risk premium" to crude oil prices globally.
• Vulnerability: As a net oil importer, Kenya's economy is sensitive to such global price fluctuations.
• The Bottom Line: An increase in the global price of crude oil almost certainly leads to higher pump prices as determined by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA).

The Trump administration maintains its naval presence in the Caribbean is aimed at combating drug trafficking. However, the government in Caracas has decried the operation as a pressure campaign designed to oust President Maduro. As the situation develops, the world will be watching not only for the geopolitical fallout but for the economic consequences that will be felt as far away as the streets of Nairobi.