GLOBAL - A United States-based civil society group has identified a critical, underexploited vulnerability in Russia's military-industrial complex that could significantly disrupt its war efforts in Ukraine. According to a new report by Dekleptocracy, a group that researches Russia's war economy, Moscow is heavily dependent on imported chemical additives essential for producing lubricants for military vehicles like tanks and tyres.

The report, released on Thursday, 27 November 2025, argues that targeting these obscure but vital chemicals could inflict significant damage on Russia's ability to maintain its mechanised forces on the battlefield. "A lubricant shortage would seriously damage Russia’s war machine," the Dekleptocracy report stated. Kristofer Harrison, the group's president and a former U.S. State Department expert on Russia, described the proposed targets as "weedy and specific," noting they are difficult for Russia to replace domestically.

A Chinese Lifeline

The global market for these specialized lubricant additives is dominated by a handful of Western companies, often called the "Big Four," who ceased exports to Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This withdrawal created a severe shortage within Russia. Dekleptocracy's investigation found that a single Chinese company, Xinxiang Richful Lube Additive Co., has since become the primary supplier, shipping up to eight million kilograms of the essential chemicals to Russia annually. This dependence on a single major supplier presents a potential single point of failure for Russia's military logistics.

The report highlights that Xinxiang Richful has established a subsidiary in Virginia, United States, potentially placing it within the jurisdiction of U.S. sanctions. The United States has increasingly targeted Chinese companies for aiding Moscow's war effort, imposing sanctions on firms involved in supplying drone components, microchips, and other sensitive technologies. This new focus on industrial chemicals represents a more granular approach to sanctions, moving beyond broad measures against energy and financial institutions.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While Kenya is not directly involved in the trade of military-grade lubricants, the nation's economy remains highly sensitive to the secondary effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and associated sanctions. The conflict has already caused significant economic strain in Kenya by disrupting global supply chains for fuel, fertilizer, and wheat. According to a United Nations Development Programme analysis, the war's ripple effects may have cost the Kenyan economy as much as 2.8% of its GDP in 2022.

Further tightening of sanctions, especially those that could disrupt global chemical and petroleum markets, could lead to renewed price volatility. Any instability in the supply of lubricants and their base components could translate into higher costs for transportation and industrial processes in East Africa. The war has previously led to spikes in the cost of living, with increased prices for fuel and essential food items like bread. The Kenyan government has previously implemented subsidy programmes to cushion citizens from soaring fuel and fertilizer costs, placing considerable strain on public finances.

A New Sanctions Frontier

The proposal to sanction lubricant additives underscores a strategic shift towards identifying and targeting highly specific industrial chokepoints that are difficult for Russia to circumvent. Russia has acknowledged its weakness in the chemical sector and initiated programmes to boost domestic production, but building this capacity takes significant time and investment. Using the wrong type of lubricant can lead to catastrophic equipment failure, with studies showing incorrect lubrication is a cause in around 70% of unplanned equipment shutdowns. For military hardware operating in extreme conditions, the correct, high-specification lubricants are non-negotiable.

As Western policymakers seek new ways to pressure Moscow, targeting these niche but critical supply chains offers a potent, if complex, option. For countries like Kenya, the key takeaway is the interconnectedness of the global economy, where a targeted sanction on an obscure chemical can have far-reaching consequences for fuel pumps, farm inputs, and household budgets across the continent.