GLOBAL - A landmark international agreement to tax and regulate carbon emissions from the global shipping industry was derailed last month following an aggressive campaign by United States negotiators, sending shockwaves through the diplomatic community and casting a shadow over the upcoming COP30 climate summit. The U.S. delegation reportedly threatened retaliatory sanctions, visa freezes, and port levies against member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations' shipping regulator, if they supported the proposed "IMO Net-Zero Framework." The move successfully forced a one-year postponement of the vote, which had been widely expected to pass.

The proposed framework included a global fuel standard to progressively lower the greenhouse gas intensity of marine fuels and a carbon pricing mechanism to charge for emissions. This would have marked the first-ever global levy on greenhouse gas emissions for an entire industry. International shipping, which handles approximately 80% of world trade, accounts for nearly 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, a figure projected to rise significantly without intervention.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, speaking to AFP at the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, described the U.S. tactics as unprecedented in his 28 years at the organization. "I have never experienced that kind of meeting at the IMO. It was not a typical IMO meeting," Dominguez stated on Friday, 15 November 2025, acknowledging the tense geopolitical climate. The U.S. government argued the measures would "impose substantial economic burdens on the sector and drive inflation globally" and characterized the plan as an "effort to redistribute wealth under the guise of environmental protection."

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The collapse of the IMO deal has significant implications for Kenya, which has been a vocal proponent of ambitious climate action in the maritime sector. Over 90% of Kenya's trade is seaborne, making the Port of Mombasa a critical gateway for the entire East Africa region. In April 2025, Kenya's Special Climate Envoy, Ali Mohamed, joined over 50 nations in a call for a universal greenhouse gas levy on shipping, supporting a proposed price of at least $150 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. This stance aligns with Kenya's national strategy to develop green ports in Mombasa and Lamu and become a regional hub for green fuel bunkering, leveraging its significant renewable energy resources.

The delay in implementing a global, unified framework creates uncertainty and risks a fragmented regulatory landscape. African nations are already feeling the economic impact of regional regulations like the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), which has led shipping lines to impose emissions surcharges on routes to the continent. These costs are often passed on to importers, potentially increasing the price of goods and exacerbating food insecurity in a region heavily reliant on imports. A recent report from the Africa Policy Research Institute warned that a carbon levy could reduce the supply of maritime shipping to Africa by up to 7% due to higher operational costs.

Despite the setback, Kenya remains committed to its maritime decarbonization goals. The Kenya Maritime Authority is actively developing a national action plan to reduce emissions and is participating in the IMO's GreenVoyage2050 project, which supports developing countries in this transition. The government's vision includes significant investment in green fuels and related infrastructure to support a cleaner, more competitive blue economy.

Global Reaction and Path Forward

The U.S. action, which included pulling out of negotiations in April 2025, drew condemnation from environmental groups and many of the IMO's 176 member states. The European Union, a strong supporter of the framework, has indicated it will proceed with its own regional measures but also stated it would review them once a global framework is adopted to avoid a patchwork of regulations. Major shipping companies like Maersk lamented the delay as a "loss of momentum" and stressed that global regulations are essential for a level playing field in the industry.

At the COP30 summit, environmental organizations have called on national governments to respond to the U.S. tactics by accelerating their own national and regional action plans for reducing shipping emissions. IMO Secretary-General Dominguez has urged all parties to return to negotiations in the spirit of compromise and cooperation that has historically characterized the organization. The vote on the Net-Zero Framework is now expected to be revisited in late 2026, leaving the future of global shipping emissions regulation in a state of uncertainty.