Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny launches a blistering attack on integrity expert Geoffrey Watson, dismissing his multi-billion dollar cost blowout estimate as pure fantasy.

The war of words over the rot in Australia’s construction industry has escalated into a full-blown political brawl. Victorian Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny has unleashed an extraordinary rebuke against Geoffrey Watson SC, a prominent integrity expert, over his explosive claim that corruption within the CFMEU has cost Victorian taxpayers a staggering $15 billion (KSh 1.9 trillion).

The figure, which suggests that criminal infiltration has inflated the cost of the state's "Big Build" infrastructure program by 15 percent, was included in redacted chapters of a report commissioned by the union's administrator. Kilkenny branded the claim "reckless" and "unfounded," accusing Watson of throwing around massive numbers without a shred of empirical evidence. "It is reckless for anyone to make unfounded claims of a $15bn cost to taxpayers," she fired back, signaling the government’s refusal to accept the narrative of systemic state negligence.

The "Napkin Math" Controversy

Watson, a former counsel assisting the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption, admitted the figure was a "very rough" estimate. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-29)He derived it by applying a 15% "corruption tax" to the state's $100 billion infrastructure pipeline, based on anecdotal evidence from industry insiders who cited blowouts ranging from 10% to 30%. To the government, this is back-of-the-envelope math with dangerous political consequences.

However, the redacted report goes further. It alleges that the Victorian Labor government "knew and had a duty to know" that organized crime figures had infiltrated the Big Build but chose to do nothing. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-31)This accusation strikes at the heart of the Premier’s administration, suggesting complicity through inaction.

• The Accusation: The CFMEU leadership funneled billions into the hands of criminals and motorcycle gangs through inflated contracts and ghost shifts.
• The Defense: The government argues the report lacks tested evidence, noting the administrator removed those chapters because he wasn't satisfied they were well-founded.
• The Context: The CFMEU has been placed into administration following revelations of deep-seated corruption and criminal links.

A State of Denial?

Watson claims the attacks on him are "personal" and have "crossed a line." He frames himself as the messenger being shot for revealing an uncomfortable truth: that the cozy relationship between the unions and the Labor government has come with a hefty price tag for the public. If his 15% estimate is even half right, it represents a colossal theft of public funds.

As the Queensland inquiry continues to peel back the layers of union malfeasance, the Victorian government finds itself in a precarious position. Denying the specific $15 billion figure is one thing; denying the reality of the corruption that spawned it is another. The public, watching their tax dollars vanish into cost overruns, may find Watson’s "rough estimate" far more credible than the government’s denials.