GLOBAL – The United Nations Security Council passed a contentious resolution on Friday, 31 October 2025, offering its strongest endorsement to date of Morocco's plan for autonomy in the disputed Western Sahara. The decision, which renews the mandate for the UN peacekeeping mission, MINURSO, for another year, intensifies deep divisions within the African Union (AU) and places Kenya's foreign policy under renewed scrutiny.

The resolution, drafted by the United States, was adopted with 11 votes in favour. Crucially, permanent members Russia and China abstained, alongside Pakistan, while Algeria, the primary supporter of the pro-independence Polisario Front, did not participate in the vote. The text explicitly frames Morocco's 2007 autonomy proposal—which envisions self-governance under Moroccan sovereignty—as a basis for negotiations, while making no mention of a referendum on independence, the long-standing demand of the Polisario Front and the Sahrawi people.

Implications for African Unity and Kenyan Diplomacy

The UN's move has profound implications for the African Union, where both the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario-led Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) are member states. The issue has been a persistent fracture point in continental politics since the OAU, the AU's predecessor, admitted the SADR in 1982, prompting Morocco to withdraw from the bloc for 33 years before rejoining in 2017. The AU has historically supported a referendum for self-determination, in line with its charter on the rights of peoples and the sanctity of colonial-era borders.

For Kenya, the resolution comes at a pivotal moment in its diplomatic posture. Historically a staunch supporter of Sahrawi self-determination, Nairobi's position has become increasingly ambiguous under President William Ruto's administration. Shortly after his inauguration in September 2022, President Ruto tweeted that Kenya was rescinding its recognition of the SADR, only to delete the post hours later amid a diplomatic firestorm. The Foreign Ministry subsequently issued a clarification, stating that Kenya's policy remained aligned with the AU and UN frameworks for self-determination.

However, relations with Morocco have since warmed considerably. In May 2025, a joint statement issued during a visit by Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi to Rabat declared that Kenya viewed Morocco's autonomy plan as the "only credible and realistic solution." This was followed by the opening of Kenya's first embassy in Rabat and the signing of several cooperation agreements, particularly concerning the import of Moroccan fertilizers, a key component of President Ruto's agricultural agenda. The trade balance between the two nations is heavily skewed in Morocco's favour.

A Decades-Old Conflict

The Western Sahara conflict dates back to 1975 when Spain, the former colonial power, withdrew. Morocco annexed the territory, leading to a 16-year war with the Polisario Front, which is backed by neighbouring Algeria. A UN-brokered ceasefire in 1991 established MINURSO with the primary mandate of organizing a referendum on the territory's future, a vote that has never materialized due to disagreements over voter eligibility.

The territory, a vast expanse of desert roughly the size of Colorado, holds significant economic value. It possesses some of the world's largest phosphate reserves, rich offshore fishing grounds, and potential for renewable energy projects. Control over these resources is a central element of the long-running dispute.

The International Dimension

The US position shifted dramatically in 2020 when the Trump administration recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco normalizing relations with Israel. This stance has not been reversed and continues to shape the Security Council's approach. The resolution's language reflects this alignment, representing a significant diplomatic victory for Morocco and its allies, including France and a growing number of African and Arab states.

In his statement following the vote on Friday, US Ambassador Mike Waltz hailed the resolution as a "historic" step toward a "long, long overdue peace." Conversely, the Polisario Front and Algeria have criticized the text for creating an imbalance and undermining the UN's decolonization doctrine by sidelining the option of independence.

As the diplomatic landscape shifts, Kenya finds itself navigating a complex path. The government must balance its historical Pan-African principles of self-determination against the pragmatic economic and political benefits of a closer alliance with Morocco. The UN's latest resolution will only increase the pressure on Nairobi and the African Union to define their roles in a conflict that remains one of the world's most intractable. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED into the specific deliberations that led to Kenya's recent policy shifts.