NAIROBI, KENYA – Several United Nations agencies operating in Kenya are turning to China to fill a significant funding vacuum created by drastic cuts to United States foreign aid, a move that could reshape geopolitical influence in the East Africa region. The cuts, initiated during the second term of the Trump administration, have severely impacted essential programs in Kenya, particularly in the health and education sectors, leaving many initiatives in jeopardy.

In January 2025, a presidential executive order paused most U.S. foreign assistance for a 90-day review, which was followed by congressional action in July 2025 confirming significant budget rescissions. This abrupt halt to funding has had swift and severe consequences for Kenya's health system, which has historically been a major recipient of U.S. support. Between 2020 and 2025, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) had committed approximately $2.5 billion to Kenya, with 80% allocated to health programs.

The funding freeze has directly affected flagship U.S. initiatives like the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which supports a significant portion of Kenya's HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment efforts. An estimated 1.4 million people are living with HIV in Kenya, and consistent funding is crucial for antiretroviral therapy (ART), testing, and prevention programs. The cuts have led to interruptions in ART supply chains, staffing shortages at clinics, and the suspension of community-based HIV monitoring and prevention services. Reports from Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) indicate widespread stockouts of essential medicines, including ARVs, HIV test kits, and drugs for tuberculosis and malaria.

The impact extends beyond HIV programs. Maternal and child health, immunization schedules, nutrition programs, and health data management systems have also been disrupted. In Turkana County, for instance, the Lodwar County Referral Hospital faced running out of USAID-supplied drugs and laid off 64 USAID-funded staff members. Across the country, an estimated 41,500 health workers, representing 18% of the total health workforce, were supported by U.S. funding and now face layoffs.

Enter China's Global Development Initiative

In response to this crisis, UN agencies are now actively courting China's Global Development Initiative (GDI) for partnership and funding. At a high-level seminar in Nairobi on Friday, November 14, 2025, Kenyan government officials and UN representatives lauded the GDI as a potential lifeline. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi described the initiative as a "transformative platform" for advancing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The UN Resident Coordinator in Kenya, Dr. Stephen Jackson, called the GDI a critical framework for navigating the current era of global instability.

China has signaled its willingness to step in. Chinese Ambassador to Kenya, Guo Haiyan, stated in February 2025 that Beijing would support Kenya's development plans, asserting that the future should not be defined by a single power. More recently, at the November 14 seminar, officials highlighted that China has already supported over 200 GDI projects in 70 countries. The GDI's South-South Cooperation Fund has been a vehicle for small but impactful community-level projects in sectors like health, education, and sanitation in Kenya.

Geopolitical Implications for Kenya and East Africa

This shift in funding sources carries significant geopolitical weight. The U.S. has long been a dominant development partner in Kenya, and its withdrawal creates an opening for China to expand its influence beyond infrastructure and trade into social programs and multilateral partnerships. This realignment is occurring amidst broader geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China across Africa. U.S. lawmakers have already expressed concern over Kenya's deepening ties with Beijing, with some proposing a review of Kenya's status as a major non-NATO ally.

President William Ruto has defended Kenya's engagement with China as being in the national interest, citing trade benefits such as the removal of tariffs on Kenyan exports. However, critics of Chinese aid often point to concerns about debt sustainability and a focus on strategic economic needs rather than purely developmental ones. The current situation presents a complex challenge for Kenya, which must navigate the immediate need to fund essential services while managing the long-term strategic implications of shifting donor allegiances. The decisions made by the Kenyan government and UN agencies in the coming months will likely have a lasting impact on the country's development trajectory and its position within the evolving global order.