LONDON, United Kingdom - The British government is poised to unveil a sweeping overhaul of its asylum and immigration system on Monday, 17 November 2025, adopting policies modelled on Denmark's notably harsh regime. The reforms, announced by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, represent a significant pivot towards a more restrictive approach, driven by domestic political pressure and rising anti-immigration sentiment. This move aligns the UK with a growing trend in Europe of tightening borders and curtailing refugee rights, a development with significant global implications.

At the core of the proposed changes is the transformation of refugee status from a permanent sanctuary to a temporary one. Under the new rules, protection will initially be granted for 30 months and will be subject to regular review. The path to permanent settlement will be extended dramatically from five years to twenty. Furthermore, the government plans to revoke the statutory duty to provide housing and financial support to all asylum seekers, making such aid discretionary. This support could be withdrawn from those who are deemed able to work but do not, or from anyone who breaks the law.

Home Secretary Mahmood stated the reforms are necessary to "restore order and control" to a system she described as "out of control" and a cause of "huge division" in the country. The UK has seen a record number of asylum applications, with 111,084 people applying in the year to June 2025. The Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has been under intense pressure from the populist Reform UK party, which has made immigration a central campaign issue.

The Danish Model: A Blueprint for Restriction

For the past decade, Denmark has pioneered some of Europe's most restrictive immigration policies, a strategy that has been pursued by its centre-left government since 2019. This approach has successfully reduced asylum applications to a 40-year low and has been seen by some in the UK Labour party as a model for placating voter concerns and countering far-right rivals. Last month, Home Office officials were dispatched to Copenhagen to study the Danish system.

Key features of the Danish model that the UK appears to be emulating include making refugee status temporary and revoking it if the home country is deemed safe. Denmark has controversially judged Damascus, Syria, to be safe for refugee returns. The country has also tightened rules on family reunification, requiring both partners to be at least 24 years old, pass a Danish language test, and for the sponsoring partner to have been off welfare benefits for three years.

Perhaps most controversially, Denmark has implemented a policy to prevent the formation of what it terms "parallel societies." This includes legislation aiming to cap the number of residents of "non-western" origin in certain neighbourhoods at 30% within ten years, a policy that has involved the demolition of social housing estates. This policy has been widely condemned by human rights groups as discriminatory and racist.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While the UK government has stated the new rules are not aimed at any specific country, the tightening of immigration and asylum routes will inevitably impact potential migrants from Kenya and the wider East Africa region. Previous changes to UK immigration rules, such as increased income thresholds for family visas, have already created significant hurdles for Kenyans seeking to migrate. The proposed termination of the care worker visa, a route utilized by many Kenyans, and the extension of the wait time for citizenship will further restrict opportunities.

The broader shift in European immigration policy, exemplified by the Danish model and now the UK's proposals, signals a more hostile environment for asylum seekers globally. For individuals from conflict-affected areas in East Africa, these changes could make seeking refuge in the UK significantly more difficult. The emphasis on temporary protection and the regular review of status creates a climate of uncertainty for refugees, hindering their ability to integrate and rebuild their lives. Human rights organizations have warned that these policies will not deter desperate people from seeking safety but will instead cause harm and fuel racism.

As the UK prepares to formalize these changes, the international community will be watching closely. The move represents a decisive step away from a long-held assumption that providing refuge is a permanent commitment, replacing it with a temporary and conditional status that reflects the increasingly protectionist mood sweeping across Europe.