A fresh wave of economic anxiety is sweeping through British industries, with a leading business group declaring the United Kingdom's post-Brexit trade deal a failure that demands a "strategic necessity" of closer ties with the European Union. This development in London is sending ripples far beyond the English Channel, creating both potential risks and strategic openings for key trading partners like Kenya.

The core of the issue lies in a stark report from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). A survey of nearly 1,000 UK firms revealed that 54% of exporters believe the current Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU is actively hindering their ability to grow sales. This marks a significant deterioration in business sentiment and puts pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government to renegotiate terms with Brussels.

Kenya's Post-Brexit Trade Boom

For Kenya, the situation is layered. Since the UK officially left the EU, Nairobi has successfully navigated the new landscape by signing a bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) in late 2020, which came into force in March 2021. This deal preserved the duty-free, quota-free access Kenyan goods previously enjoyed, safeguarding thousands of jobs in horticulture and agriculture.

The results have been impressive. Trade between the two nations has surged, crossing the KES 340 billion mark for the first time in the year ending September 2025. Official data shows Kenyan exports to the UK jumped 64% to $1.43 billion (approx. KES 186 billion) in the four years since the EPA was signed, driven by strong sales of tea, coffee, flowers, and vegetables. This has led to a healthy trade surplus for Kenya, which more than quadrupled to $366.81 million (approx. KES 47.7 billion) by 2024.

An Uneasy Watch

Yet, the struggles of British businesses cannot be ignored in Nairobi. A weakened UK economy, hampered by difficult trade with its largest market, could eventually dampen demand for the very Kenyan products that have been so successful. The BCC's report highlights that UK firms are battling increased red tape, customs friction, and regulatory divergence, making European trade harder, not easier.

This presents a dual-edged sword for Kenya:

• The Risk: A prolonged economic downturn in the UK could reduce consumer spending, affecting demand for premium Kenyan exports like cut flowers and specialty coffee.
• The Opportunity: A UK government desperate to secure trade wins and diversify away from a difficult European market might seek to deepen its commitment to the EPA with Kenya and other Commonwealth partners.

While the EPA has been a clear success in terms of trade volume, some analysts note its benefits have been concentrated among large agribusinesses, with smaller Kenyan enterprises still struggling with logistics and meeting UK standards. A renewed focus from London could unlock further investment and support to address these non-tariff barriers, broadening the deal's impact.

As the Keir Starmer government weighs its next move with Brussels, Kenyan exporters and policymakers will be watching closely. The UK's attempt to solve its European headache could well determine the next chapter of its economic partnership with Nairobi, proving that in a globalised world, one nation's trade friction can be another's strategic crossroad.