A political storm brewing in London over the UK's future relationship with Europe could soon ripple across the Kenyan economy, from the flower farms of Naivasha to the tea estates of Kericho. Senior British cabinet ministers are increasingly calling for a deeper trade relationship with the European Union, potentially including rejoining the EU customs union.

This shift in policy threatens to rewrite the rules of the Kenya-UK Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), a cornerstone of post-Brexit relations that has seen trade between the two nations flourish. The debate in Westminster forces a critical question for Nairobi: could a change in UK policy nullify a deal vital for Kenyan jobs and exports, and what would replace it?

A Thriving Partnership at a Crossroads

Since the UK-Kenya EPA was ratified in March 2021, trade has surged. The agreement provides Kenyan goods with immediate duty-free, quota-free access to the UK market, safeguarding a critical export destination. In the year ending September 2025, total trade between the two countries surpassed KES 340 billion (£2.1 billion) for the first time, an 11.9% increase from the previous year.

This growth has been a significant boon for Kenya, which maintains a healthy trade surplus with the UK. Key Kenyan exports driving this success include:

• Cut flowers
• Tea and coffee
• Vegetables and fruits

The UK is not just a market but a major investor, with around 150 British companies operating in Kenya, employing over 250,000 people.

The Customs Union Complication

The internal Labour party debate in the UK, however, casts a shadow over this progress. Health Secretary Wes Streeting recently advocated for a "deeper trading relationship" to boost economic growth, remarks widely seen as opening the door to rejoining the EU customs union. He is not alone; other senior figures like Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy have made similar overtures.

Polling data suggests this position is popular with their voters, with one YouGov poll indicating 80% of Labour supporters favour negotiating a customs union deal. If the UK were to rejoin the EU customs union, it would likely lose its authority to maintain independent trade deals like the one it holds with Kenya. This would mean trade rules would once again be dictated by the broader EU bloc, effectively dissolving the bespoke Kenya-UK agreement.

While details remain speculative, such a move would force Kenyan exporters to trade with the UK under the terms of the EU's agreements. Analysts note that rejoining would be a complex process, requiring unanimous agreement from all EU member states. For now, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's office has insisted that ruling out a return to the customs union remains official policy, but the growing pressure from within his party is undeniable.

As the UK grapples with its post-Brexit identity, Kenyan businesses and policymakers are left watching from the sidelines. The outcome of this internal British debate could determine whether the current era of booming, direct trade continues, or if Nairobi must once again navigate the complex corridors of Brussels to secure its economic interests.