London's Tighter Borders

The United Kingdom's net migration is projected to fall to approximately 300,000, a figure reminiscent of pre-Brexit levels and a stark decrease from the peak recorded in 2023, according to analysis by the British Future think tank released on Wednesday, 26th November 2025, East Africa Time (EAT). This anticipated decline is the result of a raft of new, more restrictive immigration policies that are already reshaping the landscape for prospective Kenyan migrants, from students and healthcare professionals to families seeking to join relatives in the UK.

Official data from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirms a downward trend. Revised figures released in mid-November 2025 show net migration fell to 345,000 in the year to December 2024, a significant drop from the peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023. This reduction is largely attributed to a combination of stricter visa regulations and an increase in emigration by UK nationals. The policy changes, part of a five-point plan announced by the UK government, are designed to curb overall immigration numbers, which the Home Office estimated would have prevented around 300,000 people from receiving visas in the past year had they been in effect.

The Kenyan Calculus: Navigating New Hurdles

For the estimated 144,000 to 200,000 Kenyans living in the UK, and the many more aspiring to move there, these changes have profound implications. A key change that directly impacts Kenyan professionals is the substantial increase in the salary threshold for the Skilled Worker Visa, which rose from £26,200 to £38,700 (approximately KSh 7.47 million) in April 2024. Similarly, the minimum income for family visas has been increased significantly, making it more difficult for Kenyans in the UK to bring over their spouses and children.

The health and social care sector, a significant pathway for Kenyan workers, has been particularly affected. A crucial policy change implemented on 11th March 2024, now prohibits care workers and senior care workers from bringing dependents (partners and children) to the UK. This follows a bilateral agreement signed in 2021 to facilitate the migration of Kenyan nurses to the UK, a route that now presents a stark choice between career opportunities abroad and family life. While the British High Commission in Nairobi has stated these measures are not country-specific, their impact on nations like Kenya, which have supplied essential workers, is undeniable.

Kenyan students, who number almost 3,000 in the UK, also face a tougher environment. The government has moved to restrict students from bringing family members, a change that took effect for courses starting in January 2024. Furthermore, the post-study Graduate Route visa, which allows international students to work in the UK for a period after graduation, is set to be shortened from two years to 18 months from January 2027, reducing the window for graduates to secure long-term employment. These measures are part of a wider strategy to ensure that students who come to the UK contribute to the economy in graduate-level jobs.

Economic Ripples: Remittances and Future Flows

Despite the tightening immigration environment, the economic ties between the Kenyan diaspora in the UK and their home country remain robust and vital. Remittances from the UK to Kenya have shown remarkable growth. According to the Central Bank of Kenya, Kenyans in the UK sent home nearly $112.40 million (about KSh 14.95 billion) in the first quarter of 2024, a 42.57% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This surge saw the UK overtake Saudi Arabia as the fastest-growing major source of diaspora remittances for Kenya. In 2023, total remittances from the UK to Kenya amounted to USD 334 million.

These financial inflows are a critical source of foreign exchange for Kenya, often exceeding earnings from tourism and key agricultural exports. The funds primarily support families with daily expenses, school fees, and medical bills, playing a crucial role in poverty reduction and social development. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has noted the importance of these flows, launching a project in August 2024 to reduce the cost of sending money from the UK to Kenya, which currently averages 4.8%, above the UN's 3% target.

The new immigration policies, however, cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future growth of these vital remittances. By making it harder for Kenyans to work, study, and settle in the UK, the pipeline of future remitters may shrink. The increased competition for fewer visa slots and the higher financial and skill requirements will likely alter the profile and number of Kenyans migrating to the UK, with potential long-term consequences for remittance flows. As the UK continues to recalibrate its immigration system post-Brexit, the Kenyan government and its citizens will need to closely monitor developments and adapt to a new, more challenging reality in one of its most significant diaspora hubs.