A radical overhaul of the United Kingdom’s asylum system risks triggering a surge in homelessness and trapping migrants in years of bureaucratic limbo, a government watchdog has warned.

For the thousands of Kenyans and East Africans navigating Britain’s immigration maze, the National Audit Office (NAO) report paints a grim picture: a system buckling under pressure, where "reactive" politics may soon leave vulnerable families destitute rather than processing their claims efficiently.

Unintended Consequences

Shabana Mahmood’s proposals, which aim to accelerate decisions and curb appeals, have been flagged for potential "unintended consequences." The head of the NAO emphasized that without addressing deep-seated bottlenecks, these policies would likely fail. The watchdog noted that the Home Office currently lacks critical data, including how many rejected claimants have absconded or how many asylum seekers are surviving without claiming state benefits.

Auditors criticized the British government for relying on "short-term, reactive measures" over the years. These shifts have not solved the crisis but merely moved the pressure points, creating fresh backlogs. The report highlighted a staggering statistic: more than half of the people who applied for asylum nearly three years ago are still waiting for an outcome.

The 20-Year Wait

The findings come amidst a fierce backlash against Mahmood’s package of changes, which are modeled on Denmark’s notoriously strict immigration rules. The new measures have drawn ire from Labour MPs and peers, particularly regarding two controversial changes:

• Deportation of Families: New provisions allow for the deportation of children alongside their parents.
• Extended Residency Path: The waiting period for refugees to obtain permanent residence in the UK has been quadrupled, jumping from five years to 20 years.

For a Kenyan seeking stability in the UK, this shift transforms a five-year plan into a generational wait, delaying the ability to settle, secure long-term housing, or plan for a future with certainty.

As the UK government pushes to emulate Denmark’s hardline stance, the watchdog’s verdict is clear: without fixing the operational rot, the new rules may simply swap one crisis for another.