LONDON – In a move described as the most significant overhaul of the United Kingdom's asylum system in decades, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is set to announce a raft of stringent new immigration laws on Monday, 17 November 2025. The policies, which will replace permanent refugee status with a temporary model subject to review every 30 months, have direct implications for asylum seekers from East Africa, particularly those fleeing conflict in Sudan and Eritrea.

Under the proposed legislation, the pathway to permanent settlement in the UK for those arriving through irregular means will be extended from five years to 20 years. Even those arriving via newly proposed "safe and legal" routes will face a longer 10-year wait for settlement. The government's plan, modelled on Denmark's highly restrictive policies, aims to deter irregular migration and give the state powers to return refugees to their home countries if conditions are deemed to have improved.

The announcement specifically mentioned the creation of three new, albeit "modest," safe routes for refugees from war-torn nations such as Sudan and Eritrea. This has particular resonance for Kenya, which hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees from these and other neighbouring countries and is a major transit point in the region. According to UK government data, Sudanese and Eritrean nationals have consistently been among the top nationalities granted protection, with initial grant rates as high as 99% and 93% respectively, reflecting the severe instability in their home countries. Between 2015 and March 2024, nearly 10,000 Eritreans and over 7,000 Sudanese were granted family reunion visas to join relatives already in the UK.

A System Under Pressure

The Labour government's policy shift comes amid rising asylum applications in the UK, which reached 109,343 in the year ending March 2025, a 17% increase on the previous year. Home Secretary Mahmood has stated the system is "out of control" and that the reforms are necessary to "restore order and control." The government argues that the changes will reduce the "pull factor" for migrants crossing the English Channel and ease pressure on public services. In the last four years, 400,000 people have claimed asylum in the UK.

Key measures in the overhaul include:

• Temporary Protection: Refugee status will be granted for an initial 2.5 years and will be subject to review, with individuals liable for return if their country of origin is deemed safe.
• Restricted Family Rights: The government plans to tighten the interpretation of Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which protects the right to a family life, to make it easier to deport individuals.
• Discretionary Support: The statutory legal duty to provide housing and financial allowances to asylum seekers will be revoked and made discretionary, with support potentially withdrawn from those who can work but don't, or who break the law.
• Limited Appeals: The appeals process will be curtailed, restricting asylum seekers to a single appeal rather than multiple challenges on different grounds.

Criticism and Regional Implications

The proposals have drawn sharp criticism from human rights organizations and refugee advocacy groups. Charities have warned the measures could create "another Windrush scandal" by leaving refugees in a state of near-permanent limbo, unable to integrate, build careers, or provide stability for their children. The Refugee Council, a leading UK charity, argued that the policies will not deter desperate people fleeing war and persecution, who often come to the UK due to family ties or language, not a comparison of asylum systems.

There is also reported unease within the ruling Labour party itself, with some ministers concerned about the harshness of the plans, particularly the potential for deporting families with children who have settled into UK schools and communities. For Kenya and the East Africa region, the UK's policy shift introduces a new layer of uncertainty. While the creation of new safe routes from Sudan and Eritrea is noted, their limited scope and the temporary nature of any protection granted mean that the UK may not be seen as a viable long-term sanctuary. This could potentially increase the burden on frontline host countries like Kenya, which already manages one of the largest refugee populations in the world. The UK has existing returns agreements with several African nations, including Somalia, South Sudan, and Djibouti, but the specifics of how these will be applied under the new regime remain unclear. The full details of the new asylum framework will be presented to the UK Parliament later on Monday, 17 November 2025, East Africa Time.