UDA, ODM Lose Ground as 4 in 10 Kenyans Identify as Non-Affiliated, TIFA Poll Finds

Nairobi, Kenya — September 24, 2025, 10:30 EAT

A new survey by Trends & Insights for Africa (TIFA) reveals a major shift in Kenya’s political landscape: approximately 43 percent of respondents say they do not identify with any political party—making non-affiliated voters the largest single bloc in the country. The poll also shows that support for flagship parties UDA and ODM has shrunk significantly, to 16 percent and 13 percent respectively. 

The Latest

• The TIFA survey reports that the combined support for UDA and ODM now stands at 29 percent, down sharply from their dominant positions after the 2022 elections. 

• Meanwhile, the non-affiliated category (those not aligned with any party) has surged to 43 percent, making it the largest grouping among respondents. 

• Third place in party identification goes to the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) with 9 percent support, reflecting fragmentation in party loyalty. 

Context in Brief

• In the immediate aftermath of the 2022 general election, UDA and ODM commanded strong support—about 48 percent and 24 percent respectively—making up roughly 72 percent combined. 

• The TIFA findings suggest that over just a few years, many Kenyans have become disenchanted with party politics or are rethinking their affiliations.

• The rise of independents, swing voters, and non-aligned citizens poses a strategic challenge to major parties that have long relied on identity, loyalty and regional strongholds.

Law, Policy & Process Considerations

• Though party identification is not legally binding, it influences party primaries, nominations, campaign logistics, and legislative coalitions under the Political Parties Act and Election Laws.

• For 2027, parties will need to adapt their strategies: messaging, candidate selection, alliances, and voter outreach must increasingly target the non-aligned bloc.

• The credibility of TIFA polls places pressure on political actors to take trends seriously — credible polling data can influence how parties position themselves, form coalitions, or enter by-elections.

Voices & Stakeholders

• TIFA / Poll Analysts: Emphasize that the non-aligned bloc’s growth signals an era of voter independence, and that the established parties must recalibrate their approach.

• UDA & ODM Leadership: Will likely view these results as both warning signs and calls to reinvigorate party connection, performance, and relevance.

• Smaller Parties (e.g. DCP): Stand to gain if they can position themselves as credible alternatives to the dominant duopoly.

• Voters / Public: The shift suggests a growing political alienation or desire for more issue-based representation, beyond party branding.

Evidence & Data Box

Risks, Implications & Scenarios

• Volatility in elections: With many voters unaligned, electoral outcomes may become less predictable, more competitive.

• Party realignment and fragmentation: Parties may splinter or merge; new alliances may become more fluid.

• Pressure on party performance: Parties will be judged more on delivery, credibility, and governance, rather than identity or patronage.

• Opportunity for centrism and issue-based platforms: Candidates who appeal to cross-cutting issues (economy, corruption, public services) may gain traction.

What We Don’t Know Yet

• The demographic breakdown of non-affiliation: which age groups, regions, education levels are most non-aligned?

• Whether the non-affiliated will stay detached, or gradually swing toward parties as campaigns intensify.

• How the early by-elections (November 2025) will reflect or reshape these trends in party identification.

• The degree to which parties will reform their internal structures and outreach in response.

Timeline

• August 23 – September 3, 2025: TIFA survey conducted (covering all 47 counties). 

• September 24, 2025: Results published in media, triggering renewed debate about party relevance.

What to Watch

• Party responses: whether UDA, ODM issue statements or reforms reacting to this poll.

• Changes in candidate selection and messaging for by-elections and local races.

• Subsequent opinion polls closer to 2027 to see whether the non-affiliation trend is sustained or reversible.

• Regions and swing counties where non-aligned voters might tilt elections.