The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has reaffirmed its formidable political supremacy following a clean sweep in the recent February mini-polls, punctuated by a dramatic victory in Isiolo South.

The conclusive electoral outcomes underscore the aggressive consolidation of President William Ruto's political base, sending a powerful signal ahead of the 2027 general elections.

By dominating the grassroots contests, the ruling party has vividly demonstrated that its political machinery remains highly oiled, seamlessly outmanoeuvring a fragmented opposition landscape across the country.

The Isiolo South Sibling Rivalry

The absolute focal point of Thursday's by-elections was undoubtedly the Isiolo South parliamentary race, a high-stakes contest heavily defined by an intense, publicly scrutinized sibling rivalry. UDA candidate Mohamed Tubi secured a commanding and unassailable victory, garnering an impressive 7,352 votes.

In doing so, the 36-year-old effectively floored his elder sister, Bina Mohamed, who vied aggressively on a Jubilee Party ticket but managed to secure a mere 634 votes. The parliamentary seat fell tragically vacant following the demise of their father, the highly respected late MP Tubi Bidu Mohamed, who passed away in November 2025. The late legislator had originally won the seat in 2022 under the Jubilee banner, making UDA's capture of the constituency a significant geopolitical flip.

Following his father's death, the race to succeed him rapidly transformed into a familial clash that captured the entire nation's attention. However, political realities swiftly overshadowed bloodlines, as the electorate made a decisive choice at the ballot box.

Endorsements and Political Consolidation

Mohamed Tubi's sweeping electoral triumph was heavily bolstered by early, strategic endorsements from deeply influential Borana clan elders and senior political figures across Isiolo County. The vital consensus-building process, passionately championed by Isiolo Governor Abdi Ibrahim Guyo, gifted the UDA candidate a critical structural head start.

The path to victory was further smoothed when the National Economic Development Party (NEDP) candidate, Isack Abduba Fayo, abruptly withdrew from the race. Fayo stepped down entirely in favour of Tubi, a strategic maneuver that President William Ruto publicly praised as a bold step toward unifying Isiolo County under the broad-based government's inclusive development agenda.

This political synchronization signals a deeper shift in Northern Kenya, where pastoralist voting blocs are increasingly aligning with the national government's Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), abandoning traditional, localized political formations.

Electoral Logistics and Procedural Integrity

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) successfully conducted the by-election across 61 designated polling stations. Isiolo South Returning Officer Abdi Sheikh officially declared Tubi the undisputed winner late Thursday night, bringing an end to weeks of intense campaigning.

However, the highly watched exercise was not entirely devoid of procedural hiccups. Most notably, results from the Garbatulla Day Secondary School polling station were strictly invalidated by the returning officer due to a glaring and inexplicable discrepancy. The presiding officer presented a Form 35A indicating 261 cast votes, whereas the Kenya Integrated Election Management System (KIEMS) electronic kit had only validated 161 voters. Despite this isolated anomaly, the overall electoral process was lauded by observers as exceptionally peaceful and smooth.

• Voter Turnout Dynamics: The Isiolo South by-election witnessed a relatively low voter turnout, largely attributed by local officials to systemic voter apathy and the ongoing observance of the holy month of Ramadhan.
• UDA's National Sweep: Beyond the high-profile Isiolo South parliamentary seat, UDA successfully clinched three other hotly contested county assembly seats in various regions, brutally cementing its absolute grassroots reach.
• Democratic Maturity: The peaceful conduct of a deeply emotional, sibling-contested election highlighted the growing democratic maturity and issue-based voting within Northern Kenya's political landscape.
• Jubilee's Decline: The massive defeat of the Jubilee candidate further cements the decline of the former ruling party in its historical strongholds.

A Decisive Shift in 2027 Projections

UDA Secretary-General Senator Hassan Omar Hassan, who presented the nomination certificate to Tubi earlier in December, noted that the ruling party's intense focus on previously marginalized regions is yielding massive dividends. The victory is a monumental boost for the government, proving that its socio-economic blueprints resonate with the electorate despite ongoing national economic challenges.

In an emotional victory speech, the newly elected MP extended a gracious olive branch to his sister Bina, emphatically stating that their fierce political differences would absolutely not sever their familial bonds. "I am very pleased that we had a smooth by-election... I thank the people of Isiolo for believing in me," he declared, pledging to faithfully carry forward his late father's extensive development legacy.

"This clean sweep is an undeniable, empirical testament that the political ground is firmly behind the administration, and the opposition must rapidly rethink its strategy if it hopes to mount a formidable challenge in 2027," a Nairobi-based political scientist concluded.